5 Midweek Storylines I Can't Jive With - Week 4

 

Same ol Cowboys

We're going to hear this a lot this season. Not only because we hear it a lot every season. (The Cowboys are gonna Cowboy) But because I think it might not be true this year.

Dallas is 2-1 and has Carolina coming over next weekend.

It's pretty obvious by now that the three major media markets like to goad one another. For the longest time in my life, the West Coast didn't have a football team, and the East Coast teams have sucked, so most of the media attention has gone to Dallas. Philly and New York have of course still gotten a lot of love, which means the Cowboys, but especially their fans, have been the target of media goading for years and years. My entire life.

The first time that football became relevant as something in the world about which I felt compelled to have an opinion, regardless of my particular ignorance or actual level of interest, was Kindergarten. One of the boys in my class was telling another of the boys in my class at the water fountain after lunch – this is surreal, thinking about it, now – how the Cowboys were going to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl. So I, being the contentious prick that I am, decided right then and there that the Cowboys were my hated rivals – I was a Steelers fan.

We know how that went.

And then my Pop Warner team would turn out to be the Cowboys, too. And I feel like Aikman beat Marino on Thanksgiving more than once when I was a kid, which before my teens were the only games I was able to sit and watch.

So I get people's feelings about the Cowboys, one way or another.

My theory about the Coasts teaming up on Dallas would explain why Romo was always so hated. Any other undrafted free agent quarterback who made an NFC Championship game would be a media darling for the rest of his life. But Romo was a Cowboy; therefor he was a target – for ratings. The media clearly still fawn over everything he does in actuality.

Am I trying to work myself up to saying that the Cowboys are Super Bowl contenders?

I'm actually trying to convince myself to work back from that.

I don't know. Dave Dameshek's Transitive Property of Football doesn't actually work. But if we tried to convolute our minds around it.... The Eagles destroyed the Falcons, hung tough with the 49ers, and got the doors blown off by the Cowboys – who very nearly beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers and very nearly lost to the Chargers. I think the question mark here is the 49ers. Are the 49ers a Playoff team?

Stop it. Stop it. Just say what you want to say, already.

I really think the Cowboys are that good.

The defense is playing that well. Traevon Diggs has put his mark on every game this season. Micah Parsons is playing out of position and making plays. Oh, and they've still got Leighton Vander-Esch and Jaylon Smith eating up tackles. Dan Quinn is more than a Coach of the Year candidate if this Dallas team makes the Playoffs.

It's not just that Dak looks healthy and the offense is actually playing well that I'm keying on with the offense. It's their depth. In a contest where we expected Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz to dominate tight end play, it was Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin who were moving the chains and making things easy for their quarterback. We got an effort game out of Zeke.

After three weeks, it needs to be clear to Zeke that he needs to either bulk up or start avoiding people, right? He no longer has the mass to combine with his sudden burst of momentum to impact defenders with power. Am I being clear? He hits dudes and moves backward. It's a problem. I don't know if he's not as strong in his lower body or what, but he looks small on the field, now. But I kinda get why he'd want to drop the weight and feel more shifty.

I feel like every time I see Tony Pollard handle the ball, the first defender doesn't hit him until he crosses ten yards. I know he doesn't, but it seems like he should have an 11 YPC average.

Let's really put into perspective how good this Cowboys team has been, and Pollard individually on the offense: Tony Pollard has been so good running the ball, even Mike McCarthy is running a balanced scheme. Yeah, let that sink in. The guy from Green Bay who got fired because even Aaron Rodgers wanted to run the ball. The guy who got his quarterback killed and was trying to average 50 passes a game last year – even after Dak went down.

I'm saying it now. If Dallas can maintain this balance and manage to avoid serious injuries to their stars, this team is as good as I've ever seen. I'm not going to say Rich Eisen is right, that they're as good as the 90s dynasty – I don't technically remember how good those teams were. But if they send the Panthers home with a loss – and they should; they should confound Darnold and make him look just as bad as they did Hurts – it's going to get harder and harder for the West Coast guys to talk shit about Them Cowboys.

The Chiefs are desperate

Let's slow down a little, with this one. We remember the Chiefs offense as it was when Sammy Watkins was still with them – and healthy.

The Chief's aerial attack is obviously missing something: a compliment to Tyreek Hill's size on the other side – specifically at wideout. Their running game isn't dynamic enough. But, for all I was just talking shit about Mike McCarthy, he and Andy Reid are from the same coaching tree – and evidently that tree does not like to run the ball when it's advantageous to them.

What was I talking about?

Josh Gordon.

The Chiefs are desperate for size at the wideout spot. I don't know why they thought a bunch of Tyreek Hill clones were going to get the job done. Only Tyreek plays the ball at the high point like Tyreek does – and its rare to find a guy that small who also has the hands and focus to catch the ball low and across the middle. That guy ain't Mecole Hardman.

He's too small.

I sound like an Old School Football Guy. Size Matters. Obviously it doesn't matter for everyone. But those are the exception(s) to the rule. World-class athletes can make exceptions for themselves, that's what I'm trying to say. And Mecole Hardman is just a good wide receiver. So in rotational work for Hill, you won't miss him. But flanked opposite him, and you have a problem: Your only size in the passing game is Travis Kelce, and men his size start to accumulate injuries early – and often.

All Josh Gordon has to do is use his size, and he will be fine.

I would have liked to see the Chiefs address this in the offseason. It was as glaring a problem to me as the offensive line last year. I guess they thought Byron Pringle would be that guy. Actually, Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, Marcus Kemp, and Daurice Fountain, the rest of the receivers on their roster, are all taller than 6'1”.

Maybe it is desperation.

Oh no! Maybe I didn't think this out well enough before I started writing!

I don't think you pass up a sniff at a potentially great player when he's available. But the Chiefs do have a problem opposite Tyreek Hill, and all Josh Gordon has to be is good enough for two or three contested catches a game to make bringing him in pay off.

We've never seen Patrick Mahomes go 1-2. We're all freaking out a little bit on the inside. But I'm reminded of an idea I had a few seasons ago, and I heard the Around the NFL Podcast bandy about last year a little:

The Chiefs might be a team that are so good, they take September and October to “work on things” like an extended preseason.

That was exactly what flashed through my mind when I saw the no-look interception.

Mahomes knew where the empty hole in the defense was, he knew where his receiver was going to be in a second. He could get the ball there early and give his guy a chance to make a play on it – or he could wait that second, then release the ball when he's supposed to, and maybe give the defender an extra split-second to react. What the Hell, it's just September – it makes sense to try the no-look to me, too.

He was high and inside, where his receiver would have expected it late and outside. It should have been caught – I think that was Pringle – but we've already discussed this. Pringle isn't a world-class athlete.

This Chiefs offense has a tendency to get caught napping. To put itself to sleep.

They have kind of an inside-out version of the waiting for someone to make a play problem – they have so many stars, they're all waiting on each other to make a play – or trying not to take all the plays from the other guys— It's kind of a Lebron, his first few years in Cleveland problem. He was so concerned with not being the guy who hogged the ball that he passed it when he could have just scored, and his team would have won.

That's kind of where we're at with the Chiefs. I think that Hill and Kelce are trying to play decoy most of the game – trying to let Pringle, et al, develop. They just aren't.

So if the Chiefs are desperate, which I don't think they are, I think they were desperate for one of their fourth-year receivers to make the leap. They didn't. Now they at least have size insurance – because if nothing else, Josh Gordon has size and speed to spare.

Do I think they're in trouble, two games down in their division, with a loss to the Chargers? Not yet.

The Patriots have done this too many times over the last two decades for me to think the Chiefs will eliminate themselves from the Playoffs. Not before October's out.

The Dolphins are Ready to Compete for the Division

This Raiders team is a legitimate 3-0.

I was workshopping devoting this whole section to the ideas that either the Raiders are for real or that the Dolphins are sunk. But I've watched the highlights of that game a couple of times, and I have to say – as much as I want it to be, the thrill just isn't gone. Miami should have won this game. And that's what they said about the Chiefs game in a similar spot last season. Carr played out of his mind, and if I'd just listened to the game, it might have been my rewatch game of the week.

The takeaway from that game should be what it should have been last season: these are two evenly matched teams; one of them is ready to compete for their division, the other isn't. The team that's ready to compete is the one that won on Sunday. Otherwise these two teams would have the same record, you follow me?

I like to take the season week by week, trying not to think to the next opponent as a fan, but especially as I'm writing.

But how much better are we going to feel about this Dolphins team coming off what should be a victory against Indianapolis at home? These are not evenly matched teams. Not with Carson Wentz, et al.

I have to keep reminding myself that we are all only in the third year of the Brian Flores Experience. Year three of a five-year plan.

If Ross follows the plan, I imagine it looked something like this: Give me five years to build my roster and install my culture; we'll get a quarterback in Year 2, by Year 4 we should be competing for the Division. The Goal for year 5 is the Super Bowl. Then contract negotiation.

Ryan Fitzpatrick might have set the franchise back a year by getting the fanbase's hopes up too high too soon. Fitzmagick is a good enough quarterback to get you to 8 – 8 and make you look competitive in the division. Until he isn't anymore. That's why he's never been in the Playoffs. We love him. It's fun to hype up his legend. He's kind of the Chuck Norris of the NFL, and that's fun as hell. We're going to miss him, for sure. But he might have put Miami back a season.

All of a sudden, I'm seeing Jacoby Brisset's size, and Tua's lack is problematic for me.

It took Drew Brees hooking up with Sean Payton in New Orleans to overcome his lack of size. We forget that. He didn't do it alone – and he didn't do it immediately – nor in his first stop. Looking back on it, Brees was kind of a disaster in San Diego.

He was also replacing and replaced by dudes over 6'4”. Brees, for the record, is listed at 6'0”, but plays more like 5'10”. His playing weight was around 210. Tua Tagovailoa is 6'1”, and plays at 217. Kyler Murray is 5'10”, and Russel Wilson is 5'11”.

For what it's worth, Mac Jones is 6'3”, which seems to be the sweet spot for where they stop saying you're too short and start saying you're not athletic enough.

WTF am I talking about?

*scrolls up*

Right. The Dolphins are still a year away. Last year's take a flyer at the Playoffs because they're within reach was a season early. COVID made things weird, and post-COVID is going to make us hyperbolize the residual weirdness. I still think this team could pull a 12-5 season. But they're getting swept by the Bills. While ready to lose a heartbreaking Wildcard game to the Titans, they aren't ready to claim the division.

The plan, the goal, for this season needs to be to get Tua Tagovailoa as many starts in as many gametime situations as you can. Because they have to evaluate before Year 4 whether they chose the right guy – because if they didn't, they don't have another 5 years for him to develop. They have to move off that spot and get a guy in there who is ready to compete now.

Tua cannot be their Jared Goff, is what I'm saying.

September needed to be about Tua getting in rhythm with his offensive linemen and new receivers and new coordinators. That's a big part of this puzzle that I think everyone is overlooking. The coordinator situation is too new, too experimental, and they still don't know what they have with Tua. Miami should be right around the 20 mark in any Power Ranking. We should be thinking of them as a 9-8 team with the defense to punch way above their weight.

And they will punch above their weight a few times this season. And they'll probably sweep the Jets and the Patriots, like Wild Card teams should do in the Regular Season.

I'm not ready to break up with you quite yet, Miami. Just, maybe win this weekend so I don't look so much like an asshole, whaddya say?

Tampa Bay signing Richard Sherman is good for depth

The Bucs have a problem in the back of their defense – it's the players on their roster.

I said it yesterday, but Todd Bowles isn't going to be enough moving forward to stop teams throwing all over them.

But, as far as the Sherman signing goes – I kind of see this as the opposite of the Josh Gordon situation: Where I think Kansas City can afford to take a flyer on a potentially game-changing player, I don't see Richard Sherman adding much more than veteran presence to this roster. Was he any good last year? I feel like he's been on the fabled steep decline for years.

Tampa Bay are going to win this weekend. That feels pretty much like a lock. The Patriots could surprise me, but I don't think they match up well on either side of the ball. This feels like the kind of game that's setup for Mac Jones to bounce back from last week – but I have it on pretty good authority those picks Mac threw weren't so much on him as his receivers.

Namely Jonnu Smith.

Because I'm running out of steam on the Bucs, let's double this up with an observation I'm not alone in making: Turns out maybe remaking your team through high-priced free agents doesn't result in an immediate turnaround in wins. [Look at these names]. Has any of them jumped off the screen this year?

It takes time, right?

I've been looking for a reason to talk about it, and now is as good a time as any. Peyton Manning said something that changed the way I think about football completely on the Week 2 Manningcast. He said every season, every team is a new team, no matter if you're bringing back all 53 guys. You still have to relearn how to play together – how to win together.

Every year?

That shocked me.

But it makes sense. Look at last year's Browns. They came into the season expecting to be the team they were at the end of the previous season. It took them most of the year to learn how to play like that on a weekly basis. This year, there appears to be none of that. They seem like a team that has learned to learn who you are every week.

This Bucs team – and to a lesser degree, this Patriots team – feels like that's kind of where they are: They remember what it was like to win, but it seems like they're starting out in the same place they were at the end of September last year. That is, still looking for an identity. But the teams who are in the dance at the end, they all always do this.

Very rarely do teams come out of the blocks at full speed and make it to the Super Bowl that way. Even Tommy and Billy B couldn't do it.

If this one feels forced, it was. I'm not particularly passionate about either of these teams, and until this game is over, it's all anyone is going to want to talk about.

How real do we think the beef between Tom and Bill is? Is it manufactured by Tom's people like the Let Russ Cook movement was cooked up by Russ's people? Is, in other words, this all just dynasty and legacy stuff, as Colin Cowherd says? Or is there something to it? Did Bill really treat Tom like he was 20? It seems like the kind of thing Bill would do – he doesn't seem like the kind of guy to be chummy with anyone – but if he was going to be chummy with someone, you'd think it would be Tom.

Did Tom want a head coach who wanted to go golfing on the bye?

I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised if it was all just about the money. Tom wanted too much money. And if I learned anything from Nick Saban on Monday night, it's that head coaches don't get nearly so butthurt about their quarterbacks seeking options otherwhere as we like to think they do.

You don't think Tom and Bill had the conversation about which team Tom should pursue – like Jalen Hurts and Saban did? I'm willing to bet in twenty years, when Tom is being too candid on TV, that we learn it was mutual.

I guess we'll see on Sunday, huh?

But I should keep what I want to see for my game rankings.

Stay tuned.

It's Time to Hit the Panic Button

...If your team is 1-2, that is. The winless teams can pretty much forget about the rest of the season, statistically.

The 17-game season is going to change things up a little bit, but not so much that the last two weeks won't end up mattering. Week 1, though....

I've been thinking about how I want to frame this. You'll see the take that the first week doesn't really matter, or that it matters misproportionately. But it really did feel like the last game of the Preseason. If the schedule remains the same next year, I can imagine the two-week break being used to teach how the team is going to expect weekly installs more than it's going to be dedicated to preparing for the opponent, like it was made out to be this year.

After the 3-game mark, what can those games really teach us? The Bills aren't the same team after three weeks that they were after one.

But I'm not even sure I believe what I'm saying, there. The Steelers are the team they were, Week 1 – only minus TJ Watt wrecking Buffalo's gameplan. The Bengals and the Vikings, as it turns out through three weeks, are actually evenly matched teams. Houston is probably only competitive with Tyrod Taylor in the lineup. Trevor Lawrence is going to throw picks while his coach looks outmatched by the NFL.

If we thought the Seahawks were going to be able to score in the fourth quarter because they closed out a bad Colts team, I suppose we were wrong about that.

I guess my point is that it's still a long season. You've already watched me walk right up to the edge and close my eyes. Let's all back up together.

We talk about Parity in the NFL like it's a problem. We act like we want a superpower team at the top and for everybody else to be at the bottom. But I like the NFL the way it is. I like seeing the number of undefeated teams drop every week until there are none. Not just because it's fun for everyone in the NFL family when everyone is in the Postseason conversation, but also because any game on any given Sunday (or Thursday or Monday) has the potential to be fun to watch.

But when we're talking the defending AFC and NFC champs are both starting out slow with copious conversation about their ability to survive the season, we're talking a good time.

Extra Playoff teams, the Bye is more valuable than ever, the schedule makers are getting better with every season... I don't know. What I see is drama. And the more of that we can have each season, the better.

Nobody enjoys when their team loses. But just think: the Bengals have a better record than the Steelers right now, who genuinely look to make up the cellar of the AFC North.

Change is good. Chaos makes for a better story.

Only the Giants among the winless teams should really be surprised. Giants fans – press the panic button. Press it like the button at the crosswalk. Press it over and over and then keep pressing it. Because something is wrong up there, and you deserve better.

And there we have it, folks. Five Extremely Broad Topics I hear people getting wrong. Thanks for stopping by!

I'll be back tomorrow with a preview of the Thursday Night game and a teaser for my Game Power Rankings. Then we're on to Sunday! See you soon.