The Paper Bag Rankings: The 7 Most Unattractive Available NFL Head Coaching Gigs

 

By my count we've got 7 teams with head coaching vacancies: The Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Miami Dolphins and – technically – the Las Vegas Raiders. So let's do a top-7 list. Something like...

The Paper Bag Rankings:

The 7 Most Unattractive Available NFL Head Coaching Gigs

#7 – The Las Vegas Raiders

This one is easy to me. This job isn't unattractive at all. For starters, this might be the only team on this list with an actually reliable quarterback. Here's looking at you, Kirk Cousins. I start here on a technicality, though: I don't think Rich Bisch is going anywhere.

The question vis-a-vis Rich Bisch and his tenure in The Desert for me is whether he can retain his staff. If he can get the band to stay together for another tour, I think the Raiders could really be something next year. Not that 10-7 and in the Playoffs isn't something. I expect the Bengals to quickly bounce them; but would I be surprised if the Raiders won? Not at all. There isn't much difference in the Bengals – what I think is the best team in the AFC – and the worst teams in the AFC.

If Rich Bisch can't keep the gang together, this should be the gig everyone is fighting over. I suppose we'll see which way Mark Davis is leaning if he retains Mike Mayock.

I do like that there hasn't been any noise to my reckoning coming out of the Raiders as an organization that Rich Bisch might be out the door. That could change after a loss this weekend. But I genuinely hope not. I liked his presence on the sidelines all season – hell, I even kind of liked the Raiders by week 18.

Rich Bisch was no small part of that. Mr. Davis, if you're reading this, you have the guy already – get his staff to stay or pay for upgrades and you and your terrible haircut are golden for another decade. ...Maybe only a half decade, don't get too crazy throwing around guaranteed money this time. Two contracts is fine.

#6 – The New York Giants

This really took me some effort after #7. The crux of this argument is that the Giants have won before.

John Mara has been with the team since 2001 and apparently owned it since 2005 (if I'm getting that right.) The Giants have won with Mara. It hasn't exactly been pretty. An awful lot of those Eli Manning years were 8-8. But if I'm a head coaching candidate navigating these teams, I see the Giants as a team I could win with.

Not because the depths charts on either side of the ball or at any position, really, are ideal – I like Kadarius Toney a lot. He'll be a star. But I'm not taking a head coaching gig for a wide receiver who finished his rookie season hurt.

I'm convincing myself I could get the best out of this ownership if I have the right GM. I'll have to learn more about how those relationships work this hiring cycle to say more.

#5 - The Minnesota Vikings

I feel like if I were to look at this list as arranged by another I might find the Vikings in any of these spots. But really I think the general consensus about them is that they're better than their record. I don't think anyone thought Mike Zimmer was the problem, and I don't think anyone really thought that Rick Spielman was the problem, but the team had noticeably thinned from seasons past.

I'm not sure who is willing to say it at this point, but I see Kirk Cousins as a liability. I know I have him fairly low on this list for that statement to be true, but I don't know – I don't see Cousins ever accounting for more than 8 wins. And the more games you add to a season, the less impressive 8 wins really is. I also think he's a weird dude and too far into his career for an owner to be bringing in a GM and HC to “maximize his potential” the way they will for QBs in their first couple contracts.

Does that mean I think a coach can't win with him? Obviously not. That's why this job is among the least unattractive.

I wouldn't want this job – but I can see it filling quickly with someone who already has a relationship with Cousins.

#4 – The Jacksonville Jaguars

This job comes with very real risks. First of all, no one else has won in Jacksonville. I don't know what that's about. I can't imagine it's a product of the owner – Shad Khan seems desperate to do anything that will generate wins. He's appeared by my eye to take every single imaginable approach with his teams and his coaches/general managers. I don't know. It's a mystery to me, and the team has never been good enough that I've been emotionally interested in investigating it.

Maybe now that I'm Sports Single I'll explore it a little bit. This isn't where I do that.

You're going to hear a lot of people say that Trevor Lawrence makes this team attractive. I hear that. I could have moved them down. But I don't believe that Trevor Lawrence is anywhere near enough Shinola to polish the turd that is the rest of that roster.

He impressed me, the last week of the season. You'll hear these games described as “with nothing to play for”. That's absurd. Of course these men have something to play for – if you're on a team with “nothing to play for,” you're very likely about to be unemployed; the last – the absolute very last – thing you want as a person about to be unemployed is tape out there of you not trying as hard as you could have the week before you became unemployed. Who is going to hire a guy who, with a little effort, might have been the difference in a winning and a losing season?

You hear what I'm saying? If not, I'll say it for the balconies: I don't put any especial stock in bad teams playing well through the last four weeks of the season.

That's a whole thing, when your team sucks. “Well, at least they looked good in December. You can count on that in September.” No. No you can't. And for that reason alone, I would be weary of the Jags gig.

I'm not sure how to feel about Trent Baalke retaining his job. I was originally thinking that at least the General Manager and talent-scouting departments are still in place. And I may as well stick with it – because Baalke has identified his share of diamonds in the rough over the years. As I've said, I don't know why the Jags are bad, but if Yannick Ngakoue is any indicator, at least that part of the Jags' operation is working properly.

They can't retain their talent. But they can't win with it, either.

#3 - The Miami Dolphins

Now we talk about the teams for which nothing is working properly. And to prove that my bitterness and resentment haven't clouded my judgment, I put the Dolphins where they belong on this list. They aren't the Browns, circa 2018 and before. Not yet. They haven't been bad enough for that. Brian Flores' performance is going to have someone thinking they could do better with the same pieces. Just like always.

Indeed, if you're going into Miami without banking on your previous relationship with Chris Grier to power you through the hard times, you might even convince yourself this is an attractive destination. They've got just about everything, especially if they can retain Philip Lindsay and Duke Johnson. They've got the holder of the rookie receptions (season) at WR1, a defense that can dominate for whole months at a time. All you're really missing is a quarterback.

But here's the thing, and why I'm putting Miami right here and why I'm going to sneer at every choice they make through this process: they're going to convince themselves they aren't missing the quarterback.

Yet again they're going to try to bring in a shiny offensive guru to maximize their young quarterback. Just like they did with Tannehill. We've all heard it before. And I'm already rolling my eyes so hard it hurts my brain.

I anticipate an exodus of talent from Miami. Their best players have come into conflict with Grier before. And without Flores to remind them that they are in fact Miami's best players.... Eventually the Dolphins will get to the point where Jacksonville is and where the Browns were. It's only a matter of time.

Whatever, let's talk about the Bears.

#2 – The Chicago Bears

The Bears fucking stink as an organization. And I don't mean they aren't good. I mean there's something rotten and stinking of shit in their proximity.

I don't understand and frankly don't want to all the complex ins and outs of their family business. But the guy who is supposed to be the boss of the General Manager is now on a trunk of power within the Power Structure all his own (presumably with no branches, more of a pillar, really; but what is it supporting? The McCasky family in general, it appears; but, again, I don't really want to know or understand that obscenely wealthy, no-doubt inbred, degenerate, insane family's in-and-outs.).

Am I describing a Lovecraft novel or the NFL?

Sometimes I forget with Chicago, the product the Bears put on the field is so horrific.

That was mean.

This job is deceptively attractive. The Bears are an historic franchise, Aaron Rodgers is, has to be, please God he has to be right, on his way out of Green Bay. That's where you start if you're a coach and you're looking around at all these jobs: Who are all the quarterbacks I'm going to have to face twice a year?

Looking at our list, we have teams from the NFC North and East, and the AFC East and South. The Packers have the only quarterback in the Bears' and Vikings' division. Are you frightened of Jared Goff? And the Bears have the better defensive roster. Two coaching staffs have been able to come in and win games with the defense. Now, those defenses were assembled by Ryan Pace – who is gone. So that might matter with this next coupling. But GMs are a mystery that, like their draft picks, can only begun to be solved after three years. So we'll see.

But what this really means if you're a coach thinking about interviewing for this job is that you're behind the 8-ball as far as the draft goes. The quarterback situation is not going to be any less muddy and ridiculous just because Pace and Nagy are gone. You'll still be taking a job with Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, and Justin Fields on your roster. You're going to have to go to your interview fully prepared to back Justin Fields (unless you're an insane person); but those dudes aren't going to be easy fixes. In fact, this kind of chaos and drama is the kind of thing that can undo your whole season.

Honestly, and this isn't what this piece is for, but if I'm the Bears, I hire some jackhole that never wanted to be a head coach so you're not ruining anyone's career when you inevitably fire them in two years. Hire a David Culley equivalent and let him do a good job so you can part from him with little ignominy.

The Bears right now need a GM more than they need a star coach. I appreciate that where they're at they want to develop Justin Fields. But they'd be better off to cut bait with as much of this roster Ryan Pace assembled as possible – including all three of these quarterbacks – and just be completely terrible for a year. Again, like the Texans.

They didn't suck badly enough that all their terrible contracts can be offset by a first overall pick like the Panthers got when Dave Gettleman took over for them. (Hey, a name partly responsible for another vacancy earlier on this list!)

That isn't to say that Fields isn't the guy – just that whoever takes this job is cursed. Maybe the next decade of Bears football is cursed because of Ryan Pace's QB draft picks. With the ownership and organizational power structure the way it is and the quarterback situation what it is, I wouldn't anticipate much winning, whether you're reading this as a fan or one of these prospective head coaches.

#1 – The Denver Broncos

I really had to fight with myself over this. When I first started, I thought the Broncos might be an attractive place to go. I assumed that Miami was the worst and that the Broncos would fill up quickly. And then I started thinking about owners and general managers.

I don't understand what the hell is going on with the Broncos. End that sentence there and answer any question you have. Seriously. I don't know what's going on with their ownership. I don't understand their talent scouting and acquisition department. Is Elway still in their front office? Is George Paton a person who is not mentally retarded? I genuinely don't know.

What I do know is that this job is fucked.

The Broncos have been a horseshit organization since Shanahan left. Which is a funny statement to make, because so many of their plops have landed on and in Miami over the decades. Adam Gase is only a recent example. Didn't Brian Griese make his way down to Miami?

Even Super Bowl wins weren't enough to keep whatever is going on with that organization from cannibalizing itself. How, knowing that you have an aging Payton Manning with a broken spine, are you unable to identify a rookie quarterback? Over the course of a decade – fuck, to say nothing of the three years you had Manning winning all those games. How many quarterbacks have they whiffed on? How many coaches have they hired with a no-offense-at-all mentality?

The team has enough clout to pull a big name. Maybe even Brian Flores or Brian Daboll.

Huh. Both big-name hirings this cycle are named Brian.

Big year for Brians.

That threw me completely off my roll.

The Denver Broncos might be the most dysfunctional outfit in the League. And without one of the very-greatest defensive minds on the sideline, are they going to continue getting the kind of production they have? Are they going to continue to draft and develop as a defense-first team?

Really you could talk yourself into all their offensive talent and say that all it takes is a QB. So you get a QB Whisperer and you get off to the races. But this isn't a warning to the fans – this is a warning to the coaches: the last time the Broncos had a QB Whisperer he fell in love with Tim Tebow, and now he's in New England.

Bad organizations find a way to screw up even easy decisions.