Science - Miami Week One Ignorant Reaction

 

Okay. I'm going to do a little experiment today, then I'm going to write another piece. Because that's what science is all about, right?

I didn't get to watch the Dolphins game yesterday. Boo, I know. I watched the Bengals and Vikings each try to let the other win because that was the choice I made. I guess it seemed better than watching whatever was on CBS. Mistakes were made, okay?

I haven't ready any reactions to the Dolphins/Patriots game, yet. Just what I saw while it was happening, and a couple statistics I'll need to dig up to source, like a professional. *burps* Science is all about making observations over time and using those observations to make accurate predictions. Inaccurate predictions are a result of bad science – that is, either bad data aqcuisition or processing or both.

Just from the score alone, I already know there are a lot of Dolphins fans and a lot of NFL talking heads who are going to say the Dolphins choked and will have things to say about Tua. 17-16, by the 20-25 point metric we've discussed before – that is, offenses are trying to score a minimum of 20 – 25 points – Miami failed.

But I'm here to tell you this is exactly the game both Flores and Billy B wanted. And in fact, Miami won big – by winning at all.

But let's see if I can predict what happened since I won't be able to watch the game and give you an actual breakdown – and then let's see if I'm as wrong about how the Dolphins are going to look the rest of the way forward this season as I was about nearly every game this Sunday.

Flores wanted a tight game.

I haven't looked at Miami's drive summary yet, not since the first half ended – but it seems like the Patriots' D is going to be a good one this year. They gave they o-line fits, it seems. A couple of sacks early, if memory serves. Some big losses in the running game. But, when they lost the lead, they did what the Browns couldn't – they got it back. And kept it.

The gameplan called for a low score. Lots of runs. Probably not a lot of first downs – but when they were able to take them, they were able to capitalize on their big plays. All three of their scoring drives were the results of big plays, I read. That's good. Because that's how you play true defensive football.

I feel like it's all I say in this space, when I'm talking about Flores, but Flores is a fighter, as a coach. He treats the game like a fight – like a boxing match, is what it looks like to me. And in a heavyweight fight, you only need a few good shots to win the game. How many big plays did I read that they had? 6? My internet is being an asshole today, and I don't take nearly good enough notes. Oh well, maybe I'll come back and edit this part in post – or not.

Miami also did at the end of that game what Cincinnati couldn't to Minnesota – both teams have double-ns in their names, and in the opposite syllables. They're like double-n palindromes. Anyway – Miami ended the game with first downs on the ground instead of giving the opponent a chance.

I'm glad to see that Miami didn't let New England's new-look passing attack tear them apart and they didn't let the Pats bully them on the ground. If you read my primer, you know I thought that might be the case.

I saw DeVante Parker was Miami's highest graded offensive player according to PFF – or someone similar. That's excellent. They need Parker to play the savvy veteran role and let Gesicki and the other guys on the outside eat.

I haven't seen the Tua pick yet. Brady threw two. Rodgers threw two. Fitzpatrick is hurt. Herbert also played in a low-scoring game. I'd say people can calm down. It was his first NFL game with a crowd.

Which....

I think we didn't make a big enough deal about the impact that was going to have on this weekend. I suspect it affected Miami's offense nearly as much as it did Cleveland's.

Alright, well, I think that's about all I have to say about that. Let's see how wrong I turn out to be.