Week 2 Projections and Predix!

 

So, this exercise was a lot more difficult than I expected it to be. And not for the reasons I expected.

I'm more interested in more of these games than I predicted. I figured there'd be three or four that really piqued my interest, but as I began to move them around, to try to decide which games actually were better than others, and in what order they should fall, I found that I'm actually pretty interested in the majority of these games.

I probably could have done the 1, 2, and 3 spots with Miami, Sunday Night, and Monday Night. But I didn't. There is a surprise.

Starting at the bottom!

There were only three games I just couldn't bring myself to want to watch:

#15 – Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Atlanta Falcons have a problem on their offensive line. It's called their entire offensive line. The team is healthy, otherwise. That isn't the issue. The issue is that they don't have professionals lining up on the line of scrimmage – on either side of the ball. Their defense might be worse than it was last year.

But this was all to be expected of them. Don't know why I see so many articles blaming Matty Ice, including some predicting whom they could get to replace him. Dude's got no run game, no time to throw.

And what more is there to say about the Buccaneers? We all know the story at this point.

Their injury report is probably a mirage.

Can the Falcons hold them to under 40?

Buccaneers coast to an easy win. 42 – 13.

#14 – Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars.

I really had to dig deep to decide which was the 14^th worst game this week. Atlanta at TB was obvious.

No way that I conceive of this game going does it sound like a good time.

The Broncos' defense is still here to play, and Teddy B makes the offense interesting. This is not the game that the fourth Lawrence brother breaks out. Sorry, Jacksonville fans. I think it's funny that Trevor was in the Gabbert Zone last week. It seems like you might be relying on Blake Bortles memories to get through the season. Sacksonville isn't going to carry you to a surprise Playoff spot this year.

And that feels like all I have to say about this turd of a game.

Denver wins on the back of another three-turnover day for Lawrence. They aren't off the field yet before rumors start swirling again about Urban Meyer.

Let's go nuts. Denver wins, 38 – 16.

#13 – New England Patriots at New York Jets

The only reason this game isn't #14 is because it's a division game. If New England were to start out 0 – 2 in the division and Miami were to win, this would probably actually be my #1 game to recap/rewatch.

The Patriots are the Patriots. After a while, your team takes on the personality of the head coach. Tropes, right? Well, the Patriots are Bill Belichick. They're imperfect, they don't get everything right, but they get enough right often enough – and they don't suck twice in a row very often.

I can't imagine Billy B and his team are going to look down the barrel of 0 – 2 and see the Jets on the other end of it and just let that happen.

Otherwise, I think this has a chance to be a competitive game. New York were out of the game by halftime last week, but they made it look closer than what it was. I don't think New England has that kind of firepower, if you could call Carolina's 19 points firepower.

New England squeezes the life out of the Jets in a victory that looks like a mirror of last week. 19 – 17.

#12 – Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts

I think, if there's one common thread among these first four games that makes them so easy for me to put this low, it's that they're lopsided. I don't expect this game to be anywhere close. I don't expect it to be close after the Colt's second drive ends in a punt and the Rams end up going up three scores and threatening a fifth going into halftime. This could very easily be a blowout by then if the Rams play like they did against the Bears.

I think the Bears might be a better team. The Colts definitely don't have a David Montgomery.

Just sayin.

Rams win after pulling their feet off the gas in the second half. Indy makes it close in Garbage Time. 33 - 30

#11 – Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals

The Minnesota Vikings. You can't hear the tone of my inner voice, but I'm glaring at the team in purple. What the Hell was Week 1?

But – the Arizona Cardinals keep this game out of last place. I'm interested in the Cardinals, this season. Murray seems to be feeling himself, the defense is playing about as well as you could imagine – better, actually. This game is at home, and I expect Arizona to keep rolling.

They make the Vikings look silly. 31 – 12.

#10 – Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears

I have to admit to being intrigued by the Bengals this year. I don't think they're going to be good. But they'll at least be as interesting as the Browns of the past have been.

The Bears have to play Justin Fields.

Just because the game is interesting doesn't mean there's anything interesting to say about it.

Bengals win in OT, 20 – 17.

#9 – Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks

There is no team I like talking about less that the Seattle Seahawks.

The Titans were served to a vintage Ryan Tannehill game. He's good for one or two of those a year. Not usually back to back, and he always plays Seattle hard. I figure this game goes down to the wire. Lots of attempted rushes by both teams, but I see the QBs doing most of the damage on the ground. Both go over 300 yards in the air, lighting up the scoreboard in the second half in a shootout.

Let's go 38 – 41. Go Hawks.

#8 – Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Told you I wasn't going to put the Monday Night game in the top-3. I actually didn't say that. Now you know two of the games at the top of the pyramid. Oh, well. Suspense is knowing there's a bomb, just not when it's gonna blow up.

And that's how I feel about this game. I know that one of these two teams is going to bomb. I'm just not sure which. Maybe it's both of them?

Frankly, I'm rooting for Rodgers to tank this season. As bad as he looked, and as dumb as I'm going to look for predicting back-to-back spite-fueled MVPs, maybe he is. Nah. He's not.

TJ Hockenson looked really good for Detroit.

Let's see.... The Packers have evidently forgotten how to play defense and the Lions aren't dressing one.... I really want to predict a low-scoring game, because I've predicted a lot of high-scoring games so far, and usually they end up somewhere in the middle. So, because I think this is the most mediocre game of the weekend, let's give it a mediocre score.

Imagine that Price is Right wooooomp trombone slide here.

Packers edge out the Lions, 26 – 24.

#7 – Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

Where I have ended up ranking this game really surprised me. When I first saw it in the lineup, I turned up my nose. The Raiders, ugh. The Steelers! Ugh!

But, actually, I had a lot of fun with the Raiders last weekend. And the Steelers beat the Bills, so I'm feeling pretty good about them, too. Turns out recency bias can be beneficial – the question is just to whom.

And the question the Raiders need to answer is to whom they're going to throw the ball besides Darren Waller.

The Steelers need to figure out how to score more than 30 points, because they're there to be found against these Rrrraiders.

I'd like to see these defenses come out and play, lots of attempted runs as both teams try to grind out the clock, 1980s-football style. But the Raiders don't have Josh Jacobs in this one, right? Man, he looked good. So I figure Carr is going to throw it more than he should, which is going to lead to sacks, which will lead to turnovers.... Steelers win, 24 – 13.

But the Raiders look like they're going to be in it until the last three minutes.

#6 – Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers

This is another game that got buoyed not only by the games beneath it, but by the surprising performance of the Dallas defense. If it weren't for their defensive performance against Tampa Bay last night, they're a bottom-5 team for me, as far as my interest in them goes. Now they're at least in the top-15.

And the Los Anglees Super Chargers? Let's see what happens when their receivers catch passes for four quarters, not just one and a half of them.

Chargers win, but it's close. Maybe even Overtime. 31 – 30

After the game, we aren't questioning Mike McCarthy's offensive gameplan so much.

Zeke remains a non-factor.

#5 – New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Hoo-wee! Recency bias is real!

Both of these teams have me interested for absolutely the wrong reasons. I want to know if the successes they found are at all sustainable.

The Saints, against a team that's trying after the first quarter; and the Panthers against a professional roster. Also, NFC South games are always wacky. There was a season not to long ago where the Bucs and Falcons (I know, neither team in this game) traded 50-burger blowouts to one another. These games are always nutty.

That said, I really want to know if Jameis Winston can be efficient in back to back weeks. Not even that efficient. I'd be alright with a turnover – even two! – if his team is up and he's not pressing. I expect the success he found on the ground to go nowhere, but I do expect to see more Taysom Hill, as the Panthers are going to require the Saints to travel long fields to score.

Nutty things happen in this division, and Sean Payton usually finds a way to keep it interesting. This is either going to be one of those weird 10 – 9 Saints wins, or there are going to be special teams plays that make it 41 – 40.

Let's go... a tortured 38 – 37 for Carolina. Sam Darnold is the story after the game. Jameis played like Jameis, but who is this Darnold?! ...Something like that.

#4 – Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

This is maybe the most surprising game of the weekend to me, as far as my interest in it. I didn't think I was going to put Houston anywhere but at the bottom of this list. But Tyrod Taylor has me feeling things. Things I enjoy feeling. Things that feel like hope, maybe?

Nah. Spite. Fuck you, Deshaun Watson. I don't even know why, I've just always felt like saying that.

That doesn't mean I think this game is going to go to the Texans.

I want the Browns in the Super Bowl. You don't get to the Super Bowl by starting the season 0 – 2 with a loss to the Houston Texans.

So, instead, I expect to see the Browns shrug last week's loss off in convincing fashion, beating the Texans as badly as we all thought they would three weeks ago. 40 – 15.

#3 – Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens

This game is in Baltimore, and I think that matters, but it won't. Nothing that Baltimore is going to want to do to slow the game down is going to work. The running game is going to falter. As much as I like that guy they had running back there last week, he feels like a Jonas Grey with the Patriots situation.  Lamar Jackson isn't enough to elevate this team until the mountain of points the Chiefs will threaten to drop on them at any moment actually drops in the fourth quarter.

That's right, I think this game is going to be closer than it looks by the end. Like last week against Cleveland, they might even start slow. Might even spend the whole game down. But it won't matter in the end. In fact, it's KC's defense that delivers the killing blows in this game. Back to back drives, one with an interception, the other a forced fumble and forced turnover on downs after the replay overturns the ball back to BAL.

This one is going to be fgeat.

33 – 28, KC

#2 – Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

I'm a fan, but I also have to be honest with myself. If I weren't a fan, this might be lower. But I am fascinated by the Bills and Josh Allen, and Miami already have me biting my nails that this season is going to fall just short like so many of the last two decades.

Miami need to answer the question Is Josh Allen in regression? with a resounding yes. There can't be 50 points on the scoreboard at the end of the game. There might not even be a combined 50 points. That's the game I know Flores wants to play.

But I've been wracking my brain about this all day, and I do not know how they're going to scheme this one. I don't know how they should.

You hear a lot of talk about how good Allen is under pressure and against the blitz. Well, last year. They hardly blitzed him last week. But they didn't need to – the four-man rush was enough to get to him. And that let the defensive backs keep everything in front of them, and allowed them to attack the ball when it was in the air deep rather than holding their breaths and praying for a drop.

The bills had a lot of those last week, by the way – drops. Can Miami count on that? I don't know.

This game really needs to be an offensive showcase for Miami. They have two receivers who are going to miss the game in Preston Williams and Will Fuller. That puts a lot of pressure on Jaylen Waddle to have a big day. Tua had better be ready to play. He's going to sour a lot of people against him if he plays like week 17 last year.

But I really think it's going to come down to Jaelan Phillips having a breakout afternoon. New England was not going to let him impact the game. If Buffalo sells out to keep him from making the big play, somebody not named Xavien Howard has to.

Miami loses a close one. 24 – 21.

Unless Buffalo give up another special teams score. Which is possible.

#1 – San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

My enthusiasm for this game is, perhaps, the most surprising thing I've experienced since Monday Night ended.

All the excitement about the 49ers is about how long it takes for Trey Lance to start; but what I want to know is how long it's going to take them to lose. The Lions are the Lions, but the 49ers scored a lot of points with relative ease. Can Philly keep pace and make this a game?

I think Jaelen Hurts is going to surprise a few people, this season. And I think he's going to keep this game tighter throughout than we all imagine. The score is going to be high, but it's going to come down to a few defensive plays in the second half.

49ers win by a field goal, 37 – 40