Week 3 Game Power Rankings - But first - Tua's Ribs

 

    Today's piece is taking me longer to frame in my head than it should. I've had my rankings in order for days, blurbs about each game all ready to go... hm.

    The Tua situation has me shook. I think that's what's going on.

    There's a draft for a piece wondering whether Tua's career arc is going to look like Drew Brees's in my computer. I've been sitting on it. And this IR situation has me wondering whether I weren't right to wonder about Tua's size.

    Did Adam Gase open Pandora's Box when he used the IR to get rid of players he didn't like?

    You hear the story. It's legendary at this point. Aging veteran gets injured, the unproven young player comes in to replace him and never looks back. It's the kind of narrative every starting quarterback wants to start their career with. It's the kind of fable every head coach wants you to believe about his prescience in selecting the young player.

    I've written about how I think the Andy Dalton to Justin Fields transition was scripted. I've thought for some time that the Dolphins' transition to Tua was scripted down to the exactly game-time situations Tua would be allowed to experience. (That's why, I argued, Flores benched him last year: so he could watch situational football while the team still won the game.) I'm beginning to doubt. But I'll circle back around to that.

    I can't get Tyrod's injury out of my head. The lung puncture. The refusal to file a suit. That's the kind of thing a conspiracy theorist sees and thinks, Scripted. That feels like a Dean Spanos move to me. Like there was no “puncture” of anyone's lung. There was a rookie quarterback and a team desperate to sell tickets. I mean, hell, I even said it years ago to no fanfare or reception that the Chargers were only the team they were because no one knew their quarterback. “Put a young, charismatic coach in there and a young phenom at quarterback, and I guarantee you the conversation over not enough butts to put in LA seats goes away real quick,” I said – or something like it.

    And looky, look at LA now.

    But that's how it goes when you aren't writing every day so people remember your words, isn't it? I just look like I'm retrodicting.

    Anyway.

    The Chargers now have that ideal narrative for their quarterback. Less for their coach, but if he can fix game management and win more than a few of these buzzer-beaters, he's going to be just fine. Justin Herbert's gonna make sure of that.

    Now, as for my doubt about Tua's scripted game experience: This injury situation really makes me wonder.

    I heard someone this summer (I feel like it was Jeff Darlington, but it probably wasn't) say that the Tua pick was ownership's decision. That Flores and Grier wanted someone else. If this is true, then everything I've been honking about, asking whether Stephen Ross isn't what's holding Miami back, is also true.

    What a shit situation to be in. You've got the defense to win the division, but you don't have the ownership.

    I think, before I move on to the games, that I might be over the Tua experience in Miami. I'm definitely over the fans this season.

Week 3 Game Power Rankings!

    First some observations:

    It says something about what's going on in New York and Los Angeles that the East Coast teams are buried at the bottom of this ranking and the West Coast teams are make up the top.

    I tried to put Miami as low as I could, but there are too many either boring or bad teams ahead of them this week.

#16 Atlanta Falcons (0-2) @ New York Giants (0-2)

    The Falcons have a serious “household name” problem. I don't know who any of these people on their injury report are. Two missing wideouts on a team that can't move the ball is a problem. The Giants are looking at injuries to Kenny Golladay and Evan Engram – look, I got burned by not paying close enough attention to injuries last week, so now I'm honing in on what won't matter in this game.

    This feels like Jacksonville and Houston, Week 1. And I have a feeling Danny Dimes is gonna get his Tyrod Taylor moment. What that means is that he'll do his damage on the ground and get a surprising win. Surprising because this one might end up lopsided.

    I hope that Arthur Smith has a good contract. This is going to be a long season for him. I'd hate to see him back to coordinating after it.

    Giants take the lead early and never look back. 34 – 13.

#15 Arizona Cardinals (2-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

    This is game is at the bottom of the list because it smells like a 56 – 0 stinker. The only thing that pushes it to 15 is the head coaches. Two former College guys, one massively successful, the other not so much at all. How do they fare against one another with professional rosters?

    It's not going to be a fair assessment – and by the time these teams play one another again in four years (or whatever), I don't think either of them is going to be at their helms.

    The Jaguars' biggest problem seems to be its defense. Can Joe Cullen slow down the Cardinals' attack? Is this the game that Trevor Lawrence starts throwing to where his receivers will be rather than where they were?

    Doubt it.

    42 - 9

#14 New York Jets (0-2) @ Denver Broncos (2-0)

    This feels like the weekend's most lopsided game to me. If the Patriots made Zach Wilson look that bad, how will Vic Fangio and his higher-talent defense make him look? I can't imagine it's going to be good.

    I almost feel bad for the Jets at this point. At least the fans are used to winning next to no games.

    Does Teddy Two Tugs carve this defense up? I admittedly haven't watched enough of either of these teams, neither highlights nor commentary. Honestly, I kinda feel like Brandon Perna and just about every national guy cover these teams in much better depth than I care to. I'd rather just send you to them.

    I do feel like this Broncos team is a legitimate 2-0. I think they could be a legitimate 4-0. I don't expect an upset here. Frankly, I expect for Jets fans to get what Miami fans got last week: a beat down.

    Broncos canter to victory, 35 - 0

#13 Indianapolis Colts (0-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-1)

    Okay, now we're talking. Things are starting to get interesting. Division game between two teams that should be evenly matched – and Carson Wentz is also playing. He doesn't grit out a victory, though. Spoiler alert.

    Both of these teams are going to want to rely on their defense and run the ball. The only problem is going to be that the Colts offense moves backward their first three drives and Tannehill feels compelled to feed Julio Jones – who is just too open in this Colts secondary. All eyes are on King Henry: do the Titans spell him this weekend after seeing Christian McCaffrey go down?

    Unlikely.

    Close game. Let's do something like 23 - 27

#12 Baltimore Ravens (1-1) @ Detroit Lions (0-2)

    So, this game is this low because I'm rooting for the Ravens, now. Unless they're playing the Browns or Dolphins, I guess. And because I now have homer glasses, I can't see this game being anything other than a brutalization.

    I want to like Dan Campbell. I do. But I predicted he wouldn't win another game, and I'm sticking to it. This Lions team isn't terrible. They could win this game. I just don't think they're going to.

    Unless – wait. Lamar Jackson's stomach bug. See, I don't pay enough attention to injury reports. I don't actually think it's going to matter. But if it does, chalk this game up for the Lions.

    Ravens win in an easy 28 – 13 romp that isn't anywhere near that close.

#11 New Orleans Saints (1-1) @ New England Patriots (1-1)

    Talk about two 1-1 teams with different trajectories coming out of Week 2. The narratives after Week 1were that New England would bounce back and that New Orleans would return to earth. Well, here we are. Do the Saint bounce back this week? Or is it going to take a while to pick themselves back up?

    This doesn't feel like a Jameis game. Why did Taysom Hill only get two carries? This team feels like as good an excuse to run a two-QB system as there ever was. Jameis is in-rhythm, keep him in. He's off, you put in Taysom. Seems that simple.

    Guess it's not.

    And, yes, I know – if you're reading this – I did tell you that two-QB systems were untenable for a variety of reasons, my actual and very real girlfriend. (Coming into my blog, bossing me around on the internet, too....)

    Patriots win an ugly game of defensive football. 24 - 17

#10 Miami Dolphins (1-1) and Las Vegas Raiders (1-1)

    Oh, boy. This game would have been top-five if Tua were healthy. Regardless of his performance last week. The game between these two teams last year, while not a classic, was certainly a nailbiter and entertaining in its own right. As it is, my confidence in the quality of this contest relies entirely on the Dolphins showing up. And I have exactly no confidence they're going to do that.

    I was reminded recently that before his knee, a few years ago, Jacoby Brissett was on an MVP-type run. Even beat the Chiefs team that would go on to be in the Super Bowl. He hasn't looked like that guy since the knee, though. If he shows up the next three weeks, with Will Fuller back in the lineup, this Dolphins offense could be dangerous. We shall see.

    The thing is, the Raiders pass rush is already dangerous. The Bills went in to Week 2 with major question marks around their ability to get to the quarterback, and Miami made Gregory Rousseau look like a superstar. I'm being hyperbolic. But Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue have no question marks surrounding their play. Their health, on the other hand, is a concern.

    And what about Derek Carr, huh? I've given that guy a lot of shit. He would definitely have blocked me on Twitter already if I'd every aimed any of it @ him. But he's playing well. Confident. Fitting the ball into aggressive windows. Playing like a guy who won't be a Raider next year. I know it's felt like that every year of his career, but man it really feels like he's going to play himself out of a job every season, doesn't it? Like, either so bad they have to find somebody else or so good he has to seek an opportunity elsewhere.

    So maybe I'm just talking shit to fill out this blurb.

    The Raiders have no answers for Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller, and DeVante Parker plays like a #1. Can Preston Williams please get healthy? Dolphins win, 33 – 13.

#9 Seattle Seahawks (1-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

    Two teams coming off gutwrenching losses. Only one of them can walk away a winner.

    This one comes down to a field goal. Another miss by Minnesota. Seahawks skirt by with an away win.

    The horizon looks dark for the Zimmer-Cousins era.

#8 Washington Football Team (1-1) @ Buffalo Bills (1-1)

    Oh, my God, Becky – look at this game. How did it get so far down the list? This feels like the game of the week when I look at it. How good are the games ahead of it? Pretty dang, y'all.

    Two defensive juggernauts with young QBs who wanna sling it around the yard. I'm expecting some serious turnovers in this game. Not a lot of running the ball. And not a lot of points.

    I want Taylor Heinicke to ball out. Not even gonna act like I don't. I want an insane statline. Something like 35/52 525 yards, 5 Tds 4 Ints.

    Yeah. That would be a fun game.

    Bills win, 52 - 51

#7 Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)

    When I look at this, I ask the same thing you probably are: how is this higher than WFT @ BUF? Good question.

    Division game. Two teams with question marks at QB and all their starpower on defense. Is TJ Watt gonna play? Are the Bengals going to remember to block the pass? Does either of these teams try to run the ball? Can the quarterbacks identify the correct colored jerseys?

    Oh boy, this is going to be a dumpsterfire. This game is like watching Housewives of LA or whatever – really you're just hoping it makes your girlfriend horny.

    Bengals win on a twist-of-fate special teams play, 17 – 10.

#6 Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

    If I were doing a top-5, this would be the honorable mention, right? How do you not get up for this game any week of the season? That's actually not true, nor at all how I feel about the NFC East – most seasons. But you've got Jalen Hurts and the Eagles playing better than anyone thought, and the Cowboys playing like a team determined not to go 8-8.

    See what I did, there? They can't, this season.

    This is exactly when NFC East football is relevant. In fact, schedule makers, put all the NFC East games in the first six weeks. Just get em all over with when the teams are still competitive.

    Anyway, I've been massively impressed with the Cowboys' defense. I've heard a lot of national guys talking shit, like they should have beaten that Chargers team worse than they did. All I know is the Dallas defense is fun as hell to watch. That #8? I like him. I like their linebackers a lot, too. And Dak is fun.

    Philly wins, 27 - 24

#5 Carolina Panthers (3-0) @ Houston Texans (1-2)

    What the Hell are the Texans doing up here so high? Don't worry, it'll fall on Tuesday.

    Oh, that's right. You've already read this blurb.

    Panthers won. Gosh.

#4 Chicago Bears (1-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-1)

    Is there a more disappointing 1-1 team than the Browns? Oh. The next team on my screen. The Packers. Right.

    I am so hype for this game. Justin Fields. Baker Mayfield. Odell Beckham Jr. ...David Montgomery? I kinda lost steam there when I couldn't think of another Bears star. Khalil Mack? Has he made an impact play this season?

    I think Nagy is going to want to play this game conservatively. And I think Kevin Stefanski knows it. Expect the Browns to come out throwing on their first three possessions. They're going to want to get a lead on Fields. Make him play from behind. Make him drop back and pass every down. He hasn't been nervous since high school, huh?

    Yeah. Remember when Tua said the NFL was easier than college?

    The Browns are going to make him eat those words. But it'll be a good game. Let's go something like 42 – 35 in the Browns' favor.

#3 Green Bay Packers (1-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

    Good god, this top-3 is good football. This could come down to a 3-point tie, and it would still be a great game. Both of these teams are interesting, powerful, and limited. The 49ers by injury to their runners. I think they have dudes from other teams on their IR at this point. But, really, that's what they get for recovering that fumble in Miami. The Packers are limited by their defense. So severely that we couldn't see them in January and beyond? Not if Aaron Rodgers and Co. play like they did on Monday.

    The 49ers are the most surprising 2-0 team in the League to me. Is this the week we see more Trey Lance? Record would suggest no.

    Let's say Green Bay go up two scores and Jimmy G has thrown a pick, and nearly lost a fumble. Is there a clamor for the Kid? This feels like the perfect game to script up some Trey Lance magic. Get him a series or two, maybe. I have a feeling it won't matter, though. Green Bay's defense seems susceptible to the run, and I'm just really not sure that San Francisco has the firepower. So without Lance and Jimmy G in the backfield together, I don't know how you scheme up enough points to win.

    San Francisco is one of the most navigable cities for pedestrians in the world. The Packers walk all over the 49ers, 24 – 3.

#2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-0)

    This game has got me giddy. I'm seeing flashbacks to Brady/Mahomes from a few years ago. Or Mahomes/Goff. Those 50+ point contests that seemed they were never going to end. After this one, I'm hoping for another high-scoring classic. Brady/Stafford. Maybe the two best offenses going against two of the best defenses. This is a Playoff preview, right here. I almost can't wait to see how they matchup the second time.

    This feels like a game where neither team is going in it with a game “plan” so much. They know what they want to do, how they want to attack the opponent, but I don't think they expect anything so much as the flow of the game to dictate what happens. This feels like a Heavyweight boxing match, like these teams aren't going to spend nearly so much time jabbing and dancing around one another as trying to knock each other the fuck out.

    Can not wait.

    The Rams win in unbelievable fashion, nearly crossing the 60-point mark, 59-56.

#1 Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)

    Do I even need to explain this ranking? Do I even need to talk about either of these teams? You know the Chiefs and the Chargers, if you're reading my work. What am I going to tell you that you haven't heard 1000 times before? That the Chiefs struggle to stop the run? That they have to protect Mahomes in the biggest moments of the games? That Justin Herbert has the second most passing yards through 17 games ever? That the Chargers have to find a way to get the ball to someone other than Keenan Allen?

    These two teams are philosophical mirrors of one another, you could say. Andy Reid is an offensive coach, Brandon Staley a defensive coach. Both are considered at the tops of their games. And both have aggressive quarterbacks with athletic upside. Both of these teams need to remember to run the ball and slow down the game. We know Andy Reid isn't going to do that. Not for long. Can Staley? Can he keep up?

    It's interesting how some teams just are that team. Like, Staley or no Staley, this Chargers feels like the same team it was last year, like the same team it's been the last ten years. Maybe it's like how Miami always collapses in the last three weeks of the season, regardless of who is currently employed. Maybe these things just happen. What I want to know is can Staley right the ship?

    Can the Chargers not fuck up the 2-minute game, and I don't know yet. I don't think so because the past has told me they can't. We'll see.

    I guess just for my Tua fans reading this I'm going to go with the Chiefs. But I think they could be in serious danger of starting out 1-2. And finishing 14-3.

    Chargers win, 38-37

    We did it again! Wow. Thanks so much for making it this far. You know what to do – have yourself a great Sunday.