Totally Subjective Weighted Power Rankings Through 5 Weeks

I spent way too many hours working on this yesterday.

I decided to make this way more difficult on myself than I needed to. Instead of just doing a totally subjective Power Rankings based on my interest in or faith in the teams – because I found that I was mostly checking out and agreeing with the Standings – I decided to do something like a Totally Subjective Weighted Power Rankings. Then spent the next twelve or so hours obsessing over my indecision regarding which to use as my template for this piece.

No answer was forthcoming after the game, so I went to bed.

And woke up unsure which to use.

So now I'm going to show you what I've done and see which you like better. (This was never meant for eyes other than my own, so, yeah. Enjoy.)

 

            As you can see, only five teams stayed in the same positions.

So how did I weight the rankings? I decided to assign each team a score between 1 and 5 (1 worst, 5 best) in three categories: offense, defense, and coaching. I tallied the scores, then organized those teams with the same scores subjectively. Like, the Cardinals, Ravens, and Patriots all sitting at 10 points makes sense – they each have a standout in one of the three categories and lag behind in the others – but it wouldn't make sense to rank the Patriots above either of the other two.

I feel like I have stared at these two lists longer than I have stared at maybe anything in my life. There has to be something to be gleaned from what I'm seeing. Is it how subjective subjectivity is? Or is it how remarkably similar the lists are? Should I try to make an aggregate of the two lists? I'm not sure.

There are some interesting things: Both lists could be used to predict the Playoffs where we are right now – the only Division Leader in the Rankings who isn't also in the top-14 is the Titans in my Weighted list. And that speaks more to the job I think they've done with an only-slightly-better than average roster. And my top-3 and 32^nd teams are the same on both lists. Which I think its more indicative of how the League actually is than me as a ranker. We've got between three and five very excellent teams, one team that is absolutely terrible (largely because they have the worst coach and coaching staff and I don't trust their defensive personnel), and as many as 26 teams that could win or lose any given week and no one would be much surprised by the rate at which they do either.

I found it kind of incredible that the Steelers, Patriots, and Jets all made major leaps up the Weighted Rankings from my Personal Rankings; less surprising is how the Cardinals, Ravens, Falcons, and Raiders all had massive tumbles. These are teams I either don't trust or plain do not like. (I'll give you a hint – it's the AFC teams.)

I really think the Browns are a great team and that the Chiefs have a great quarterback and coaching staff.

If I were smart, I would have used these pages to just do the Rankings.

Totally Subjective Weighted Power Rankings Through Five Weeks

Tier 4 Points

#32 – Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)

The Jaguars are alone as the only team with 1 point in two categories. I gave them a 2 in Offense because of Trevor Lawrence and some of the things the offense has been able to accomplish when James Robinson is on the field. Otherwise, this is the dumpster of the NFL. And so long as Urban Meyer is there, it will probably remain on fire.

Tier 5 Points

#31 – Las Vegas Raiders (3-2)

This doesn't feel fair, even to me, but an interim coach is 1 point even if he's Bill Belichick; and there's nothing about either the offensive or defensive personnel which argues to me that either of them should be a 3. And that's how you score 5 out of a possible 15 points, Raiders fans. I really am sorry, actually.

Tier 6 Points

#30 – Washington Football Team (2-3)

This one truly hurt me. Not gonna lie, it's why I considered scrapping this whole project and just apologizing to you for giving you work only half-assed and barely done. I don't believe that the Football Team are this bad. But they can't beat anybody with a defense that can't stop teams from scoring more than 30. 24 is the target range for any offense. If they can count on 31, you're fucked. Most teams are going to keep Heinicke from scoring 32.

#29 – New York Giants (1-4)

This team bums me out.

#28 – Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

Tier 6 is what happens when your team is below average. The Falcons could beat anyone below them, but they can't beat the Broncos. It's really that simple to me. Although they might be able to beat the Broncos. You should give the edge to the better quarterback, but even though these teams are evenly matched—

#27 – Denver Broncos (3-2)

The Broncos are the only team that got a .5 score. It isn't reflected in their Tier, but it is in the fact that I put them above a Falcons team I think might actually whip their asses. The defense gets an extra .5 only because of its reputation. It loses it if by Week 10 Fangio hasn't figured things out.

Tier 7 Points

#26 – Detroit Lions (0-5)

If you hadn't given up on me just at a glance at the Rankings, you've given up now. How the Hell are the Lions this high? I'll tell you exactly how – the defense has kept them in every single one of their games. Dan Campbell is almost a .5 score, if he can get a win. Which I'm thinking is more and more likely every week – but may remain impossible for him.

#25 – Houston Texans (1-4)

Let's call it like it is: the defense has been good enough to keep them in games. But the offense and coaching are below-average enough to lose all but the one.

#24 – Miami Dolphins (1-4)

This might be the only reason I showed you the Weighted Power Rankings. It's too perfect that Miami ended up in this Tier and that I could put them at 24 – that's right where they should be and what they are: the dividing line between the bottom third of the league and the other two thirds.

#23 – Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

I can't put this team any higher than this when I think their quarterback stinks, their defense is playing terrible, and their coach is about to get fired. I just can't.

#22 – Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

It does my soul good to see the Seahawks in this Tier. They were one of the League's Trash Teams with Russel Wilson, and I enjoy acknowledging it.

#21 – Carolina Panthers (7)

Carolina misses out on being in the next Tier despite a 3 in Defense and my trust in Sam Darnold and the offense to develop (I've seen flashes) because I'm hedging my bets now that Matt Rhule and Joe Brady are going to flame out before the end of the season. Not especially fair to the team or its fans, but I have axes to grind.

Tier 8 Points

#20 - New York Jets (2-3)

I feel like I believe more in the Jets than the Jets do. I think they've got the QB, they've got the coach, and the team is playing well in fits and spurts. All signs they can get it together and become competitive in the second half of the season. And for that, they deserve to be just over the midway line at 8 of 15 possible points. But at the bottom of their Tier.

#19 – Indianapolis Colts (2-3)

This has been a disappointing start for a team that has a good coach, a competitive defense, and weapons on offense. But it could be expected. I don't think Carson Wentz can play at a higher level than the QBs ahead of him. It's that simple.

#18 - Chicago Bears (3-2)

Matt Nagy hurts this team. Bill Lazor saves the coaching from an emotional-reaction 1-score. Right now the Bears are the most average of the just-below average teams. Thus they take up the middle spot in this tier. I don't think they finish the season this low, either in the standings or in my heart. Justin Fields is too good.

#17 – San Francisco 49ers (2-3)

Talk about surprisingly bad teams. I don't think the 49ers are this bad, but they have not played well enough to either beat the Titans or climb into the next tier.

#16 - Tennessee Titans (3-2)

This team will climb when they get healthy. If they get healthy. It seems that Tannehill has all his Tannehill games out of him for the season. The Titans always look different in division, and we've already talked about all three of their rivals in this piece. I think things get better for Tennessee, but until their offense has wide receivers whose names I know, I can't move them up to

Tier 9 Points

#15 – Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)

I am pleased, at least, with my choice not to alter this list after last night for one thing and one thing alone: the Eagles don't fall off a precipice in my rankings. I don't think Hurts was as bad as he was last night. And I think the coaching shouldn't fall a point for refusing to run against the Bucs – even though it worked in the second half and got them back in the game.

Philadelphia is a decent team with a decent quarterback and a decent coach. Average. But the worst of the average teams.

#14 – New Orleans Saints (3-2)

I don't feel great about this one. I had the Saints at 20 in my subjective rankings. Sean Payton buoys them, but can he elevate them?

I don't know.

#13 – Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)

The Bengals are my favorite team on this list, so far. I think they can compete with the Ravens and Browns for this Divisional crown, but I don't think they do. They're too young and Zac Taylor holds them back. Can't beat the best teams in the League playing for field goals.

Tier 10 Points

#12 New England Patriots (2-3)

This is not entirely an artifact of my trust in Billy B. But he and Andy Reid got the only 5s.

#11 Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

I just don't really like the Ravens, no matter how I weigh it out.

#10 Arizona Cardinals (5-0)

I'm sure there are some of you that saw I put the Cards in this spot with the Weighted Rankings and just closed my blog right there. This guy has to be fuckin stupid, barely getting the only remaining undefeated team into the top-10. Fuckin stupid idot. This is ignoring the news that Zach Ertz is now a Cardinal. He won't be this weekend, so it won't have any bearing on my Game Rankings or my prediction for that game. Maybe not even the rest of the season. But I'll talk about that, later.

I don't trust Kyler to stay healthy or Kingsbury to stay undefeated.

Tier 11 Points

#9 Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)

This surprises me more than any other team on this list. I think I said that already. I also think it's legit. If the Steelers play like they did Weeks 1 and 5, they're an 11 win team. Perfect for making up the bottom of the 11-point Tier.

#8 Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)

I hear AFC West fans losing their minds right now. You know how they say that hair knows hair? Yeah, crazy knows crazy. This team has a defense that's apparently playing like garbage right now, a quarterback who's thrown the same number of interceptions as Zack Wilson and Joey Lawrence, and no running game. Why do I think they're this high?

Because I genuinely think those things are artifacts of every team they play treating that week like their Super Bowl. This happens.

#7 Los Angeles Rams (4-1)

I still don't have a good enough handle on this Rams team. I feel like I've watched a lot of their ball this season, and I've not seen enough, four wins notwithstanding, to say I think this team can beat any of the teams in the tiers above with any consistency.

#6 Los Angeles Chargers (4-1)

Sorry, Chargers fans. I know I was singing your fight song yesterday, and I am totally crushing on your quarterback, and your coach and your running back and your defense give me a total football boner. But you're not ready. Not yet. But, hey – you're ahead of the Rams and at the top of your tier.

Tier 12 Points

#5 Cleveland Browns (3-2)

I must really trust the Cleveland coaching staff to have them this high. Even when compared with the previous tier, I think most people wouldn't have them this high. Too bad. I think the Browns are just waiting for Baker Mayfield to click, then they're putting 35 on everybody every week. We could be talking next season about the Browns doing what the Bills have done to teams.

#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)

I organized this before last night's win against the Eagles. I promised myself I wouldn't let that game affect this Ranking, and it hasn't. Even if the Eagles had won I would leave this here simply because I don't think the Packers and Cowboys let the Eagles stick around so long. Which is hilarious to say when you think the Bucs were up 21-7 at the half and the Eagles never once sniffed the lead. This is not the recap. Oof.

#3 Dallas Cowboys (4-1)

I think the Cowboys are as good as I've ever seen them, and I don't trust Mike McCarthy to keep it going. Can he stick with Zeke and Pollard? Can he keep Dak's attempts below 30 every week? The answer is going to be no at some point. Can they win that/those game/s?

#2 Green Bay Packers (4-1)

I had to pick the best team of these four. The Packers are it. I imagined these spots like a Playoff gauntlet. Who would be able to beat all four of these teams right now this season? The Packers. Nuff said.

Tier 13 Points

#1 Buffalo Bills (4-1)

This may not be as obvious to everyone else as it is to me, but the Bills are the best team in the NFL. They have the best roster, are performing at the highest level, and have the best coaching staff. No one else scored 13, and I don't think there's much of an argument to be made, here.

Thanks for checking me out!

I had fun making this one. I can already tell the next one will be easier.

Talk at you soon.