Post-TNF - GB/ARI - Undefeated no more! And I cannot believe I didn't pick the Packers after all that talk I did about them winning this game

 

Last night is the first time my mind has let my heart down in a game prediction.

I haven't been paying nearly as much attention to the accuracy of my predictions as I should be (if only so I can write mea culpas to pad my publication counts). When I wrote up the Green Bay/Arizona game that we watched last night, I imagined it going just like the one we ultimately got: a defensive contest where the offenses would look like they're struggling a lot, and the Packers stealing a sneaky victory at the end..

What I wrote was that this would be a shootout and Arizona would come out on top. What happened was this: I let downer Packers fans get in my head. The consensus among fans seemed to be that their defense was “dog shit” in the redzone, and that was going to get them blownout by the Cardinals this weekend. And boy do I feel vindicated for tweeting that I thought the Packers actually have a good defense; and boy do I feel like a damn asshole for not writing every single thought that popped in my head about this game.

I try (I promise, I really do) to keep these things succinct. Since I don't work for one of the networks and it's not my job to be constantly talking about football, I don't eventually cover every single angle of a game or a team through multiple conversations on various programs. I try to, using every day to talk about football to cover as much ground as I can, but-- Instead, I find excuses not to write everything down.

This is why the pros take notes, V.

Yeah, yeah.

Anyway, I feel like a genius and a damn idiot. I would have made money if I'd bet on that game – I would have bet on that game if I generated income from this project, probably.

I'm still a little stunned and ashamed of myself. I guess that's what I want to write about today. I'm learning lessons, and that's what this space is supposed to be about. You have to go with the better quarterback. You have to. When everything else appears to be a wash, you have to go with the guy who has the most Super Bowls. Even when it's Eli. But I always liked Eli, so I'm biased. But I'm also a lot amused by this situation I've put myself in – and for learning its solution: I just have to predict every team to win every weekend now.

That way I can still avoid all of this... whatever it is that I feel for saying something wrong. I don't feel stupid – I do feel a little stupid for going with the Group when I knew the group was wrong (I even wrote that the group was wrong in the piece! I don't know what it is I feel. Like my head is the clapper of a great big bell, I guess.

Ahhhh! I can't believe I've done this to myself!

I feel this intense pressure to be right about everything I write – because I want intensely to learn to be among the best at doing this, and I view the Best as those who rarely make inaccurate observations and who routinely make accurate predictions. Like – to me, what's the point in writing a mock draft if you're more wrong than right? For other people, there is entertainment value in them, and if you publish at the right time they're guaranteed to generate click traffic. But other than that, do they really teach us anything, are they instructive in any way for the fan or the GM alike? I don't think so – but I also don't know. GMs and scouts say they're instructive.

Just because I have never experienced something, doesn't mean it isn't possible. Nor does it mean it isn't the normal state of experience.

Oh, well.

What a great game we got last night, huh? I need to get into the habit of telling you these things, but I was telling my girlfriend before the game – because she doesn't read my work but does want primers on the contests – that the Packers were down all the receivers in the NFL; so they were going to want to run it a lot, and we could expect to see Randall Cobb making contested catches in important spots of the game – third down, redzone, et cetera. I also told her that Packers fans expect to get blown out, but I think the strength of the Packers defense this season has been in their secondary – specifically maintaining tight coverage long enough for the pass rush to affect throws.

The Packers have been dog shit in the redzone. I'm not even going to act like they turned it around last night. But they played the game they've played all season – timely turnovers and three-and-out drives when Aaron Rodgers is hot.

Which is exactly what you want from the defense of a Super Saiyan quarterback who's still fully at the height of his powers.

The Cardinals are not a slouch team, though.

I really thought they were going to win this one. Boy, would I have looked like a genius to argue both that the Packers defense was going to look good and that their offense would be just barely not enough to stave of Murray and his superstars at wideout? Because the Packers could have made this a 10-point game. They got like 16 shots at the endzone and missed all of them.

Speaking of Murray's wideouts – the tables turned quickly on all those weapons, didn't they? I saw tweets this week suggesting that fans want to see DeAndre Hopkins dealt because he's a distraction in the offense. Yeah, well, without him, you got your first L of the season. How do you feel about trading him now, Cardinals fans?

And what has happened to AJ Green the last few weeks? The meme of the interception to end the game where Madden's Controller Disconnected warning pops up for AJ as he stops in his route is maybe the funniest thing I've ever seen in my life. It's so clever.

I hope he's okay.

Although it absolutely looks like he was blocking out there, not running a route – which is something I talked about with Tua's receivers ad nauseum yesterday, when I was saying that Tua can't throw the ball there in that spot. It's different coverage and a different receiver entirely, but... I don't know why coaches still call the fade is a statement that would hear me drowned out in a chorus of cliché. I swear to God, my Twitter feed this moment was a five minute scroll of people asking why coaches try the fade or complaining about the low percentage of the fade.

Okay, fine, it was five tweets. But it felt like I was dying as I scrolled through them, compulsively reading what fans have known since the early 00s.

Arizona suffered some injuries. None maybe more serious than that to Kyler Murray. I do hope he's okay.

Twice during the game I didn't have to explain to my girlfriend why Kyler Murray's size is a genuine problem. He took two sacks in the pocket because defensive linemen are strong enough with one hand to take him off his feet. His speed is real – you saw it on the final drive and his designed run(s?). But what you didn't see is him getting away from anyone he couldn't outrun.

He's not going to run through arm tackles.

The Arizona running backs were, though. Until Chase Edmunds went down. Hope he's okay. And James Conner was apparently a no-show after that.

I'm still so annoyed with myself for picking these Cardinals. They're undersized, but have so many weapons. Zach Ertz has left them missing exactly zero steps from Maxx Williams' injury. Rondale Moore had that killer muffed punt, and he struggled on offense in the first half a little bit. But he showed up in the second half. What was I thinking? I never root for undefeated teams!

Well, unless they're Miami. And let's be real – that's thrilling because it doesn't often last through Week 1.

Ah. Right. I tend to root for the team I think is going to lose - and strategize picking the team I think is going to win, even if I want them to lose. That right there, that is a me problem.

Welp--

That's all for this one!

Thanks for stopping by. Thanks for getting this far. I just wanted to talk a little bit about the game last night, specifically my experience now that I'm watching to write. Thanks for letting me share – that's really cool of you. You can share your experience in the comments or on Twitter.

I'll talk at you soon, alright?