NFL Conference Championship Weekend 2021! A Preview

 

Chiefs vs Bengals

I didn't do the Bengals adequate justice in my review of last week's games. And that's okay. I probably won't end up talking about them as much as I think I will in this piece, either.

I feel like I said everything that needed to be said during the season. (And who's reading these, anyway? I don't know.)

Cincinnati's defense is going into this game somehow underrated. It's Kansas City and Melvin Ingram that're on people's tongues. And that's fine if you're part of whatever they call Bengals fans – Who Dey Nation is my guess. I don't know – I don't tend to get along with fan groups. Lol I don't know what more Lou Anaroumo needs to do, and I'm really not worried about it. I want Cincy and their coaching staff to stay together as long as they can. Which means the defense can stay as underrated as they like for as long as possible. Hell, all the way to and through Super Bowl LVII (What is that? *counts on fingers* 57?) if that's what it takes.

I don't know that this game is going to go like it did last time these teams met.

That said, I think this Cincinnati team is obviously a more complete team than Buffalo. Joe Mixon makes sure of that. I don't know how this game is going to go, though. Every time this season I've predicted a shootout, I've gotten a game that barely eclipses 30 points. I wish I knew what gamblers called that so I could be more... jargony. I'm learning.

I don't know how each of these teams doesn't flirt with the 40s, though, and I expect overtime. It seems to be in Zac Taylor's DNA. There's no situation in my mind where either club falls behind and has to scramble to catch up. I mean, it could happen. Anything can happen. Either team could come out and call three running plays on the opening drive and have to punt, then come out and throw an interception on a tipped pass and fall down 10-0. I guess what I really mean (although I do mean that won't happen) that we aren't going to see a 20-point deficit. No 27-3 nonsense first halves.

It always comes down to who makes the plays when they're needed to be made. I'm not telling anyone anything new. But— Experience almost always dictates which team is going to do that – make the plays that are there to be made when they're needed.

This is true of both sides of the ball. And while I've talked up Cincy's defense – it's really the offenses for both teams that I'm looking at. I feel like these defenses are levies, and these offenses are hurricane Katrina. Insensitive – probably – but I guess that time in all our lives is in my mind with the Sean Payton retirement.

If there's one thing Sean Payton and his post-Katrina Super Bowl team taught me as a fan of the game, and really what I should be expecting of this game but am not (because somehow I am going to set myself up for heartbreak, I just know it), it's that big plays from the defense are everything in the post-season.

Ja'Marr Chase is just so good. Better than the entire Chiefs defense? Because there's no way Spags doesn't do everything in his limited power to prevent Chase from beating him single-handedly. Better than Tyreek Hill, then? Certainly younger. Are the combination of Tee Higgins and C.J. Uzomah better than Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce? I genuinely don't know. They're younger. For what does that matter? It matters a lot if either Kelce or Hill start to show too much wear on their treads. But, see— The Chiefs receiving corps is suddenly so deep, with Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle really making huge strides in the second half of the season. And Jerrick McKinnon is a serious weapon for them. Does Burrow make up the difference, then? Is that what I'm suggesting – that whoever is behind Higgins isn't enough?

Burrow isn't better than Mahomes by any stretch. I really don't think anyone is at this point. Mahomes's combination of athleticism and playspeed are indescribable and at least for me incomprehensible. I've never seen anything like it. But really it's his coachability and his leadership that leave him standing head and shoulders above his peers. Again, to me. I know there's an argument about his greatness, and I don't care. I've never seen anything like it, and I enjoy liking things I've never seen before.

But Burrow isn't exactly that far behind. Just because I know what it looks like to play quarterback the way he does doesn't in any way mean I've seen it played to this level. We've seen Burrow make the choice to freelance to a wide open receiver in a critical moment in the game – like Mahomes and Kelce did last week – at least twice this season. It's not like we're talking about some rookie, I type, scoffing.

Oh, right. We kind of are.

I really think this game could go back and forth. I'm not really stepping out on a limb to say it should come down to the final play. Every game last week did. So many of Cincy's have all season.

I believe in my heart that Andy Reid and his Kansas City Chiefs are going to win this one. But... these teams have been competing for my attention all season long. Regardless who wins, I will be the happiest boy in the world.

Unless I decide in the waning moments to set my heart's hopes on the team that loses for some reason.

49ers/Rams

It's moderately upsetting to me that I have to stop and think for multiple seconds every time I try to remember who the team playing the 49ers is this weekend. I have the worst feeling that Los Angeles residents are going to do the same. As they have, really, every weekend the past, oh... four seasons? Something like that?

I saw Matthew Stafford's wife bought a bunch of tickets and is giving them away because the price is so high. That... I find that disappointing. Not of Mrs. Stafford! Haha No. Of the Rams!

I feel like you want your ticket prices to be low, especially when you're hosting a Playoff game. I guess the idea is to price out-of-towners out of the seats, but, like... I don't know. Their business is theirs. They want to do it badly, let them. They're in the NFC Championship game and it doesn't look like there's any real chance in Hell they win this one.

Six times in a row, now, Kyle Shanahan has beaten Sean McVay. Their second meeting this season was a little closer, but I'd say I'm surprised the Rams still had brakes after the first one. It looked like the 49ers beat em right off. So I don't expect this one to go differently. There's a reason you go on a streak like this against a particular team – and it isn't because flukey stuff happens. Flukey stuff does happen, just—

The Rams should be the team I think wins this one running away, though.

Jimmy G doesn't do it for me. But somehow I trust Matthew Stafford to be the one who completely melts down and forgets which jersey to throw to – even though it really couldn't be easier than away from the red ones. But whatever. They probably aren't going to wear red just so Stafford can blame me for not looking before I wrote that.

You know, this whole matchup just doesn't do it for me. I want an interdivisional contest.

When I first realized that we were getting two NFC West teams, I kind of threw up in the back of my mouth a little. We need to make a rule that interdivisional matchups in the Playoffs have to happen in the Wild Card, regardless of seeding. And if there are three, they have to play in the Divisional if they both survive. But I'm also so tired of hearing people say that the NFC West is the best division in football. Give me a break. The 49ers and Rams are fun (I guess, he allows with extreme reluctance and barely un-rolled eyes), but the Seahawks and Cardinals aren't teams I trust. Not really. Sorry, Kyler. Didn't really intend to take a shot at you, here. I don't mind taking shots at Russ. I'm sure I'm going to write a piece soon about whether he's leaving Seattle and whether that means he's going to crater his career in Miami.

I mean, I get it. The games among these teams are always wildly entertaining – or at least memorable at large as being wildly entertaining – and I don't think this game isn't going to be entertaining. Hell. Stafford might throw six picks and five TDs for all I know, and the Rams' defense could got absolutely ham on Jimmy G, and this game could be 41 – 38 with absolutely nobody disappointed in the outcome if either team won.

Well... maybe not absolutely nobody. Somebody's always disappointed about something. This game could go into triple overtime and someone will still be upset about something.

Do the Rams give the ball to Cam Akers?

It seems like the answer would be yes and I can just move on. But should they? I mean, I guess they should. They kind of have to – he's the dynamic back they made such a fuss about losing early in the season; of whom so many people made so much ado during the offseason. I'm not saying it's unwarranted. I am literally saying I don't know. I don't even know that Sony Michel is overall a more secure option with the ball. Do the Rams just abandon the run and risk feeding Stafford to that pass rush?

I know the temptation in me is to say that I wouldn't. But that temptation is because I, like Sean McVay, like an offense predicated off the running game and play-action off that running game. I also prefer a dynamic tight end as my primary target. So, Kittle, that's as close as I get to really calling your name in this piece. I figure you're going to spend a lot of time on Von Miller duty. Sorry, bud. I did say “doody” for you, though – twice, even.

(Kittle's like a big dumb Golden Lab. Loveable, but... he doesn't really need to talk to me – you know?)

I keep being burned by those teams in the Playoffs, though. As in, those offenses I actually like to watch seem to lose more often than not because they forget to actually establish the run. Except KC, of course. But who knows? I know that moving around isn't exactly Stafford's game, but I'd like to see McVay move the pocket a little, get Stafford on some rollouts, some of whatever that's called when they drop back at an angle (maybe a sprint-back? I'm not sure I've ever heard it named).

It comes down to Kupp in my mind. Kupp and Samuel.

That should be the picture on the title card. It won't be. But it should be. It could also be the title of a buddy cop movie. Those are the guys who are going to decide this one. I know I've seen things where Rams players are saying they want this one for Aaron Donald's legacy, like any defensive player has ever been denied the Hall because he lacked Rings. That's whatever to me. It is hard to overlook how good Donald and that defense can be, though. This game's in LA. I can't imagine the weather's going to be anything but perfect. Even at it's worst, LA's weather seems like just a normal day in Ohio.

Which is perfect passing weather. Perfect, in other words, for Kupp and Samuel to go absolutely fucking nuts.

But whatever.

Coaching matters. Shanahan has McVay's number. I already touched on that, and I think that's the most important factor in this game. That and whether the Rams can keep Deebo under 200 all-purpose yards. They did the last two times they met. I know – not suggesting they didn't. But I feel like Deebo knows who he is to this team at this point. And I love thinking that taking them on his back to get into field goal range in Lambeau, in the snow, in the waning moments of the game, is going to have him coming into this game like Goku having just seen Krillin die.

So I guess we'll just have to let it play out, won't we?

Sometimes one dude can take over and win a game – so long as his quarterback can keep from giving it to the wrong team. Something I 100% do not trust Jimmy G to do in this one. Not since I expect Aaron Donald and Von Miller to be eating his lunch all game.

And that, as they say, is that. I have some things to say about football in general which I will be posting tomorrow. Things seem to be settling into a normal rhythm for me again as far as writing and taking care of myself; so that's good. I'll talk at you soon.