NFL Divisional Round 2021 - an Unjust Review

 

Saturday

A Letter to the Losers (sort of) – Sorry, Fans of the Winners

I'm still stunned the Packers lost.

I feel like I watched the finale of that game – from the blocked punt touchdown until Robbie Gould's game-winning, there's-no-chance-he-misses-this fieldgoal – with the exact face of that meme of Aaron Rodgers with his helmet half knocked off.

Yet again I'm stunned that the home field advantage – in this case the cold, the snow, the wind of Lambeau - of the premier team was a disadvantage for them. The Packers looked just as cold and uncomfortable and just as ready to get the fuck off that field and go home – win or loss no longer appeared to matter – as the 49ers by the end of that game. By the final drive, though, it was pretty clear to me that Deebo Samuel wanted to win more than anyone – more, certainly, than the combined efforts of anyone else on either team.

And yet again I'm realizing that both of the home teams lost on Saturday of the Divisional Round!

I can't believe the Titans were one and done. I'm still having trouble processing it. I guess I feel like the estimated four hours between their loss and the Packers' should have been enough for me to come to grips with what I saw. Get this: it wasn't.

That I've been focusing my attention elsewhere in the middle of the week isn't excuse for not having my feelings sorted out about these games before they've started. I've been treating football like an emotionally abusive spouse – like I'm a Dolphins fan or something. Here's to moving through that now that my divorce is final. The first advice you're always given to get over someone is to get under someone new.

The first team I find myself under this season and not disappointed with myself after is the Bengals.

I was letting Chase and Burrow tag-team my eyes and my heart long before there was a bandwagon to get on. I feel like the Bengals fans were even less on-board than I was by week 4. That obviously changed by the Wild Card. Everything has changed since the Wild Card.

Well... maybe not everything. I was still screaming at the television yesterday because Tannehill was throwing picks – because I was rooting for a team I only like because I desperately want Tannehill to vindicate me in saying he is a top-10 QB and has been the last five years (I don't want to be vindicated for saying that sometimes he has Tannehill games where he throws inexplicable picks that get his HC and playcaller “squeamish”. I really don't.).

So, yeah, by now you know which of those things I've been saying about Tannehill was made most true. That interception to open the game was not Tannehill's fault and I will go to my bed tonight arguing that. And probably I will do that for many, many sleep cycles. Probably many years of them.

What's the name of the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans, because he, Matt LeFleur, and I need to have a chat. Todd Downing. I feel like that's got to be a trending search on Google after his performance last weekend.

(As you can see, writing these can be a many-day process. I wrote the first half while I waited for the second games to begin; then the second half the following Tuesday.)

Alright, well – while I've got your attention—

Dear the Titans: Fellas. What the Hell was that? Before you answer – Todd. Mr. Downing: I'm a schmuck. You're not supposed to take me that seriously when I say that Burrow is the best version of the quarterback type that Tannehill falls into. Alright, fine. So Tannehill throws a pick on the first play. So you're not confident in your offensive line— Look. I didn't write about it before, so it's my fault, alright? I get that. I should have told you that your best moves with Tannehill were getting him running early and rolling him out on bootlegs. So I take the blame that you didn't know that's when your quarterback plays his best.

But what the fuck was how you deployed Derrick Henry and Devonta Freeman? And do you really only have two receiving threats at the line of scrimmage? Look, I get going max protect. I do: You keep Tannehill upright and he's exactly as deadly as we saw he could be. And if you can get AJ Brown behind the defense, you take the shot – like Tannehill was doing all day – like he did on the first play of the game. But here's my thing – and hear me out, because I get it that I'm an idiot. But what the actual fuck was that gameplan?

And hey – if it was Vrabel telling you to dial it back, I'm only sort of apologizing for what I've already said. (As of Wednesday, it seems like Vrabel has taken the mea culpa and is standing beside you, it's cool. But—) Why could you not get the ground attack established? I don't understand coaches who think a guy who missed most of the season is going to be in post-season form just because you want him to be. It would have taken a couple games to get him going – you have to ride the hot hand. And Foreman so obviously had that.

But—

I don't know, at this point I'm just mystified and angry. I wanted Tannehill to have his moment in the sun. Maybe next year, without all the pressure to win after finally (finally) winning the Conference. Will that happen again this decade?

Ah! Don't even think about it, Matt LeFleur. Trying to sneak out of here like you aren't going to get your lumps for what I saw last weekend. Thought I forgot about you? You thought wrong. Just like I thought wrong that your offense would manage more than 10 points in this game. How? How did you manage that? Oh, I know the answer. Still the question needs to be asked. Just like you need to be asking the question How many more of these can you lose before your seat starts getting hot? You're on a winningest-ever trajectory for the regular season, but you can't seem to win critical games at home in the post-season. And that... is problematic when every time you lose one of these things the likelihood your generational, future Hall of Fame quarterback finds someone else to win with.

Okay, fine. So Marcedes Lewis's fumble isn't your fault. In fact, the play was brilliantly drawn and even well executed until the fumble.

“We've seen it too many times. Last week, Garoppolo got bailed out by the rest of the team.” That's what Aikman said about the Garoppolo interception. Great scramble drill by Jimmy G. He needed just a little more umph on it – and, yeah, he needed Kittle to bail him out. I didn't see Kittle bailling him out a lot until that final drive.

But that's not your problem, Matt LeFleur. Your problem is that you didn't score more than 7 points up until this moment in the game. By my count your defense forced four changes of possession. And with them you were able to score zero times. That's a problem for me. But you and I know that's not the biggest problem you're going to have in that game, is it? No. No, it's not. It's the middle of your special teams. The blocked field goal right up the middle, and the fateful blocked punt comes right up the middle! The worst part of that is that evidently you talked about how you knew this was a problem during the week, then managed not to fix it before the biggest game of your season? Eesh. That puts a noose around your neck in my opinion. Now, whether you've got enough rope to hang....

And none of this answers why you were never able to establish a ground game so you could ride it out the back of your own endzone or why your playcalling looked gassed in the fourth. Mind you, not the offensive players – the playcalling.

I guess I'm not really here to wag my finger at either of you, Todd, Matt. But I am mystified that you managed to lose these games.

I told my girlfriend going into both that your offenses were even with your opponents'. And they were. I told her it was a matter of who had the better defense. And the thing is, both of you had the better defense. Cincinnati and San Francisco just got it done when the doing needed did; and your squads didn't. You had the better quarterbacks, the better-looking offenses, the better defenses...!

I'm not angry. I'm just really, really disappointed. As disappointed as I've been in a Divisional loss in years.

And, really, I guess that's about me and my journey through football and through involving myself emotionally in things. So I suppose what I should be telling the two of you is thank you – thank you for the opportunity to be disappointed and to learn from it – not to retreat from disappointment, but to be more discerning and more forthright about my expectations going into any kind of scenario. Let's Just Let It Play Out is how I end up writing more than 1300 words about two games I wasn't sure I had anything to say about three days ago.

And 1300 is only the first half – and not really everything I might say about those games, actually. But I'll save what I've got to say to Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill for another time. This is lengthy enough to frighten most away as it is.

Sunday

The Future of Tampa Bay – Do the Bucs Crater Next Season?

Rams/Bucs tried to put me to sleep in the best way possible.

For a while there it really looked like Tom Brady and the Buccaneers weren't even going to show up. And then Cam Akers fumbled twice. It was that second one that really changed the way we'll remember this game, though.

I've been immersed in listening to people talk since these games have ended about Brady and these Buccaneers' future. It's not likely they get the band back together again. Not with pieces of the front office looking around the League at potential new gigs and Tommy Terrific talking about how this is a family decision. That sounds like retirement talk to me. But I don't know.

The real question – for him, for his family – is whether he wants to go through a season where he or his team sucks. That's more likely an and situation next season than it is an or one. Are the Buccaneers going to be good enough next year for him to pull off another 11-win season and win the Division? Well, winning the Division should be doable. The Falcons should improve, but the Panthers and Saints won't.

Honestly, I don't see why the Buccaneers couldn't be good enough to compete. I figure that even if they lose some pieces, they'll be at least as good as the team that got ejected last weekend – after injuries, you dig? Which means they'll probably be good enough to lose in the Divisional again, pending productive rookies and free agent acquisitions. Which will still happen – and on the cheap if TB12 is there, still.

In the decision-making flowchart, if Tom agrees with me, the question becomes whether he's willing to potentially lose before a Championship game again.

I don't remember where I saw it, and credit doesn't go where it should often enough on the internet, so whatever – but it occurred to someone on Twitter that a Belichick defense more than probably doesn't let Cooper Kupp go nuts in the fourth period.

Speaking of defenses, Todd Bowles is getting interviews. So maybe it's a factor that defensive coaching could be a major question mark going into 2022. (How is Bowles the top candidate for the Dolphins' HC job?) (I hope he Josh McDanielses them.)

Anyway, I have to wonder whether Arians isn't about ready to pack it up.

What if Byron Leftwich takes a head coaching gig someplace else? Wouldn't that make the whole Arians coming back to coach in Tampa to spotlight Leftwich so he could take over in four or five years thing... invalid? Or does Leftwich getting jobs elsewhere make it what it is? Like, I know that we don't often expect people to actually follow through on their word – and I don't believe that good intentions matter to owners even a little bit – but.... I guess Byron Leftwich's career is Byron Leftwich's career. And frankly if he thinks he can do better in Miami than waiting another season or two and taking the job from Arians... or if he feels like there's more than a chance he would be passed up in Tampa in favor of someone else – like Todd Bowles – then, yeah, I get it.

I'm getting myself all twisted up around this idea.

I just can't buy the idea that Byron Leftwich isn't perfect for either Jacksonville or Tampa – and he's already in Tampa. But Jacksonville has the quarterback. Tampa will decidedly not have the quarterback if Tom retires. Which he could do if Bowles leaves, as said before. So if you promote Bowles to keep Brady, does Leftwich stay to keep the band together for one more tour? Yeesh. It hurts my head just thinking about it.

I do not envy Jason Licht.

Let's talk about the Rams, just to really rub it in to the AFC winners.

How I feel about the Rams typifies how I feel about this NFC: The Rams are boring to watch. I could put a superlative adverb there – something like extremely – but, eh, you get the idea.

I found their defense boring last year; it was worse this year. When the defense was good we had Jared Goff stinking up the place, though. Except in that playoff loss. Which was bizarre. I'm not saying that Matthew Stafford is a less entertaining quarterback than Jared Goff. He's not. Being bad isn't entertaining, it's annoying. I don't know what Matthew Stafford is for me right now, though. \

I loved the soul stealing comment. I am very glad he finally won a Playoff game. Good to see him get that monkey off his back in real time. He and his came close though, didn't they? Sheesh.

And that's it.

Von Miller looked good. Aaron Donald was dominant. Jalen Ramsey kicked another dude off Mike Evans then immediately gave up an easy touchdown in single coverage. So. I don't have a good feel on him. He says erroneous things related to numerology, he misquotes the bible.... Not every football player has to be a “Renaissance Man” or even of above average intelligence. It's okay if he's just a normal dude who's really good at football. I don't have to like him, either. But that doesn't mean I can't evaluate his performance on the field.

Or notice that he contributed in his hubris to the nailbiter this game became. So.

I'm done thinking about the Rams for a while. I also don't always get the best vibes from Sean McVay. But he won this one and it looks like he's going to get smothered in the next one.

We'll see.

Chiefs/Bills was the game we all deserved this season.

It wasn't quite the monster game that Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes had a few years ago with Belichick and McVay duking it out to the tune of like 12,000 combined points. But 13 Seconds is a pretty fucking boss nickname for a game. And I especially love it because I heard someone talking about Dak Prescott and the Cowboys and their inability to get a single play off in 16 seconds. The Chiefs had 13. They got three plays off.

That's some shit right there.

And Travis Kelce and Mahomes basically called their own plays the last two passes of standard regulation? Please. That's legendary shit right there.

But I actually don't want to talk much about the Chiefs.

The whole game, my girlfriend is openly and enthusiastically rooting for the Bills. I went into the contest wanting to see a good game, but feeling like Mahomes was going to put on a show. That became rooting for the Chiefs pretty quickly. Old habits die hard – I've been rooting against the Bills literally longer than I can remember. Head and other traumas – it's a whole thing. Moving on.

I've said it before, and I wasn't the first to notice it, but this Chiefs team is legitimately so good they spend the first half of the season experimenting, the second half fine-tuning, and the off-season winning. It's what they do. From the first drive, Mahomes wasn't about to let Josh Allen steal the crowd's heart. He gashed the Bills repeatedly on the ground. We all know by now that he ended the game the Chief's leading rusher.

Buffalo, on the other hand....

Josh Allen is so good it's natural to want to say that this Bills team is going to be back in the Playoffs and he's going to get his shots over the years. Let's not act like Marino didn't have his chances to knock those four-peat Bills out of the Playoffs. He's going to have to get through Herbert and Mahomes and Burrow and don't be surprised if he and Mac Jones have a legitimate rivalry going on within the next five seasons.

Is Sean McDermott the kind of head coach who can win a Super bowl? Sure. Why not? Just because he's lost two heartbreakers – this one in Kansas City – doesn't mean he can't get this team over the hump. And frankly if things stay as they are, through one of those NFC teams. This year is not that year. There's always next season.

I don't know enough about the State of the Bills to give you a rundown of where they'll be. But other than the safeties being some forty yards off the ball the last two passes of standard regulation and the defense being gassed in general in the overtime period.... I don't feel like this team was poorly coached. Not like watching the Cowboys mismanage the clock and direct receivers to look into the blinding sun for incoming passes. I feel like there was just no way and not going to be one that the Bills won that game. The Chiefs really are that good, and their quarterback really is that special – and they really are that well coached – that when they decide they're going to win, they're going to win.

The game should not have come down to overtime.

But that's what a Josh Allen is for.

I guess what I'm trying to say by talking about the Chiefs again is that with Josh Allen healthy and in his prime, the sky is the actual limit – well, maybe the Chiefs are the limit – for that team. The way he's throwing the ball right now – to say absolutely nothing of his overpowering size and surprising speed – you can't stop him. There were two completions in that game that were impossible. And I think they were both Taylor Gabriel touchdowns. I don't remember the order they came in. (GamePass is a bitch, so my film study has become balls. I'm back to watching the games and digesting as much as I can of what other people are seeing to sort-of peer review what I saw.)

The first as I remember it was the laserbeam across his body thirty yards into the endzone or whatever it was. Only Josh Allen can make that throw. The velocity he hit Gabriel with is incredible. They call that being on a frozen rope for a reason: it was eye-dropping-to-chest level for everyone on the field. And there were three defenders running toward the flightpath of the ball. Allen put so much heat on the pass, though, none of them had a chance at it. And that's impossible.

Literally any other quarterback even attempts that pass and he's at least tipped. Probably easily picked off.

The other was the deep shot we will all be thinking about for at least weeks to come.

Other guys hit that shot. You saw Tannehill attempt that shot a whole bunch of times against Cincinnati. What you don't see is dudes take that shot and make it look as effortless as Allen did. You see dudes wind up and give that everything they've got. Usually they're moonshots that receivers have to run underneath and everyone in the stadium is holding their breaths the whole time.

Not Allen. With just the right flip of the hip, he has just enough velocity to meet his guy right in stride like forty yards downfield where nobody had a chance to get in the way. Fucking amazing.

But I've been on the Allen bandwagon – inasmuch as an erstwhile Dolphins fan can be on a Josh Allen bandwagon – for a couple seasons now. And the Chiefs have been my sidepiece since Andy Reid first took the job. So... I guess I don't much want to talk about the Bills, anymore, either.

Overtime

The overtime rules should be so simple. I'll clear it up for you guys, since everybody wants to make it difficult.

You play an extra quarter.

If at any point after each team has had the ball for at least one play there is a change of possession and a lopsided score, game is over. Boom, everyone is happy.

Everybody gets a chance with the ball. If you both score TDs, we play to a punt or a missed FG. *dusts off hands*

Maybe that's too simple? Idk.

You play a 5:00 period for the Regular Season and a full 15:00 quarter in the Post-. If you're really worried about player safety, you force the game into a 5:00 situation. We all know coaches get tight in the pants in the 5:00, so at least ties will be interesting and we'll know for sure which coaches are on the hot seat because they can't manage the 5:00 period. 15 minutes is clearly enough time to resolve a Playoff game, seeing how we've seen it 11 times with the current rules and have seen 10 first-possession TDs. The one other was won on the second possession – so it's not like double and triple overtimes are exactly a problem; nor do they project to be.

If what you're worried about is gassed defenses letting teams score on one another over and over again, I say we may as well keep the rules the way they are, then, where the time on the clock is more a formality than a deciding factor in the game.

And that is all I have to say about the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. Probably.

Thanks letting me talk at you. I'd like to do it again sometime.