Week 4 Game Power Rankings

 

If you end up betting any of these scores, let me know – cus I feel like I'd lose money this weekend. Let's get right to it.

#16 Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)

Oh boy. This game falls all the way down here for two reasons: recency bias, and I have exactly no illusions that the Chiefs are going to fall to 1-3. The records may be even, but the teams are not – Transitive Property of Football or otherwise.

This spot on the ranking is as much an indicator of my confidence that this is going to be a blowout as much as my lack of interest in the Eagles right now. We saw who they are against the Cowboys. This is going to be a long season.

Kansas City control this game throughout. Eagles throw their best punch, Jalen Hurts still looks like the long-term answer, but the coaches don't have any for KC's offense. Chiefs get right, 40 – 24.

#15 Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1)

How—? Right. Recency bias. The Steelers aren't going to be competitive with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback this season. And the Packers don't have a get-right defense, even without the Smiths rushing the quarterback. That's probably the amount of correction I should have gone to last week in reacting to the injury report.

I've talked a lot about these teams through the week, and I expect the game to be bad. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

Packers continue romping on teams. 40 – 10.

#14 Tennessee Titans (2-1) @ New York Jets (0-3)

Mina Kimes had a killer tweet reacting to the news that both AJ Brown and Julio Jones are out for the Titans. I had this game this low before learning that, and I'm almost tempted to lift it up – just because I want to see how Mike Vrabel handles Henry's workload. But nope. This is still going to be a stinker game. Maybe the Jets offense scores some points this week. Maybe not.

This doesn't feel like a get-right game for Tannehill, though. And that feels weird for me to say. He doesn't often have Tannehill games twice in a row, and it seems like he's had three this year. And now he doesn't have his top two targets. Who knows – maybe that's exactly the script that Vrabel has in mind for him. Give him some legitimate adversity against an illegitimated team while also getting his top two guys right.

That isn't an original thought. I saw it elsewhere, but I like it. So I'm coopting it like it is.

Jets lose a game whose score is closer than the result. 17 – 24.

#13 Houston Texans (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Bills have mystique, Buffalo fans.

For two decades we've watched the Patriots win games on their mystique alone. Josh Allen beat the Washington defense before he'd even stepped on the field. He is both that good and that fearsome. It's not my take. Brian Baldinger destroyed the WFT front-7 for their effort in this game. That's mental, y'all. That's knowing you've got no chance in the locker room while you're getting taped up.

That's not great the for the Football Team, and that's why the Bills have plummeted this far on this list.

Do I think the Texans are going to offer any resistance? None.

Is there anything about this game I want to talk about?

Bills win big. 57 – 30.

#12 New York Giants (0-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-1)

This feels like the first interesting game of the weekend, and it's because this is the first game I've discussed that's not completely lopsided.

Except....

These teams feel evenly matched. From their strengths down to their flaws, they seem like mirror images of one another. This is where I might talk about the coaching matchup, but that's not what's going to matter in this game.

The Saints are playing at home.

The Giants are fucked.

50 – 3.

#11 Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

If you didn't check out my pregame..

#10 Detroit Lions (0-3) @ Chicago Bears (1-2)

This feels like Detroit's first actual winnable game. Every game is winnable, but man they put Dan Campbell through a murderer's row to start the season. Is Andy Dalton playing? I've heard Ian Rappaport say he could be back. It's probably a game-time decision, right?

I'm not sure it matters, though. So long as Nagy is your HC and calling plays, it might not. I'd like to put this game at the bottom if not for my curiosity to see Fields play.

Bears win 17-16 after a failed two-point conversion as time expires. Dan Campbell fails to ignite a spark.

#9 Washington Football Team (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

This one might be too high, too, given what I've seen from the WFT defense this week. But it stays where it is because now I want to know: do they bounce back? And when is Atlanta going to catch fire with Arthur Smith? We think we know he's a great coordinator – is he a good head coach?

Heinicke might not be the long-term answer after all. That would be a bummer. I like his play. And I like underdog stories. This is a winnable game for Heinicke – and I think he continues to play well against a talent-depleted defense.

WFT wins 30 – 17.

Where is Kyle Pitts?

#8 Indianapolis Colts (0-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2)

This game is deceptively high. It's also the Jacoby Brissett revenge game. If revenge is even the right word. What would the Colts look like this year if they had given the reins to Brissett? You know, we – that is the royal we, I – think about Brissett like he's been in the league 10 years. He's 28.

And I am getting emotional. Which is how this game made it this far up this list.

If there is a get-right game on Miami's schedule, I assume it's this one. (Because I haven't turned the page to next week, yet.) The Colts are depleted with injuries. Their quarterback can't move. And in the words of Brandon Perna, they're a team whose best players are a Guard and a Linebacker. They're in trouble this season.

Miami does that thing they always do in the AFC South and goes off in a mistake-free afternoon at home that has everyone thinking they're ready to compete in the AFC East again. Dolphins win 52 – 13.

#7 Arizona Cardinals (3-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

And now I get to talk about games I don't think are going to be blowouts. The NFC East is duking it out this weekend, and they make up the next two contests on this list. Both of these games could go either way.

The Cardinals are still a young team with a developing head coach and quarterback. They're prone to mistakes. That isn't to say the Rams aren't – just not as much. It's hard to call this game without imagining what LAR would have done to JAX, and it's impossible for me to imagine it being close.

Matt Stafford continues to shine, and the Cardinals defense continues the trend of having no answer for Cooper Kupp. This one is close. But the Rams take it at home, 27 – 24.

#6 Seattle Seahawks (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

When I read this matchup, my mind wants to remember back five years – with the Seahawks. Seattle are a team that feel permanently stuck in a post-Super Bowl slump, like they're experiencing the Shula/Marino years. Has Carroll fallen behind the times – or has the rest of the division gotten legitimately competitive?

I'm willing to bet it's the latter, in no small part because of Kyle Shanahan. This 49ers team is good and plays well together. That's important. GM John Lynch deserves a huge amount of our respect. And he gets it, I'm sure. I am fascinated with the quarterback situation in SF. How long can Jimmy G fend off Trey Lance?

I should have come up with a jousting analogy there, but I didn't. I've let you down, I know.

This one comes down to the Seahawks' offense, doesn't it? The 49ers don't want to play a bunch of 17-13 slugfests this year. They're going to try to score early and often. Can Seattle keep up? I don't think they can.

San Francisco takes this one. 34 – 27.

#5 Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Denver Broncos (3-0)

Hey, ho, whaddya know, Lamar Jackson has a series of mysterious injuries and illnesses through the week that keep him on the injury report – but he comes out and plays hero ball on Sunday. Somebody was going to have to keep the tradition alive of an AFC North quarterback gutting through injuries that don't show up on film.

The Broncos are 3-0 and look like it. What more is there really to say? Can the defense limit Baltimore's big plays? That's what this game is going to come down to. This feels like a toss-up. So let's go Baltimore, 24 – 23.

#4 Carolina Panthers (3-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

Here we go, Dallas! It's time for you to prove the first three weeks of the season weren't a fluke. Can the defense look as good tomorrow as they have through three weeks? Does the offense continue moving the ball at will? Can they clean up the penalties?

And Carolina – hoo, boy. Same questions. Can they continue to play like an unbeaten team? I think they do – and I think they could win this game, CMC or no.

But Dallas wins a gritty come-from-behind victory at home, and all the talk the Cowboys are getting from this blog doesn't look so hyperbolic.

30-28.

#3 Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

Division games between teams we think are legit are always going to rank high, here. I don't even really have anything to say about this game. We've had so much to say about both of these teams – in this blog and elsewhere. It's going to be nice to see two gritty teams go at it.

I think the Raiders take this one. The edge goes to coaching, right? 30 – 28.

#2 Cleveland Browns (2-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

This game is a contest between low-key my two second-favorite teams in the League. I've been down on the Vikings in these posts. Probably too low. If Cousins can continue to sling it into tight windows and Zimmer can get the defense figured out, this should be my favorite NFC team. But I do not trust Cousins any further than I can throw him. Which, as it turns out, isn't very far.

And the Browns – the Browns! The offense is working, the defense is coming off what will hopefully not be their best game of the season.... OBJ is back and another week removed from injury. This doesn't feel like the game Zimmer gets the defense back together, and I think the whole NFL world is waiting for Cousins to shit the bed.

This is the game he does it.

Browns win 27 – 20.

#1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots

God damn me, but I did it. I'm as surprised and annoyed by this as you are. I made this list a few days ago, but wanted to make sure I really knew wtf I was talking about this week – I'm still not sure I can make that argument. And now that I've returned to it three days later... god damn me, but I did it. And it's right.

There is no more dramatic a storyline than that in this game. And it could turn out to be a lot closer than people think. But I talked about that too much yesterday.

All that's left is to call the game. And I have to go with my heart. The Patriots play like the Patriots of old for one game this season: the one that might be their Super Bowl. Brady is emotional, makes a few mistakes; but more importantly his team is pressing and committing penalties and they fall behind coming out of the half as Mac Jones scores on his second consecutive drive. Bucs fall as Belichick gives him no chance with the ball at the end of the game.

This one comes down to coaching, and Arians is worse with the clock by a wide margin. Patriots win. 33 – 31.

And we've done it again! Another weekend, another slate of games ranked. Can't wait to learn how wrong I am.