Week 7 Game Power Rankings

 

The beautiful thing (I think) about writing a daily reaction blog is the number of opportunities I have to be wrong.

The search for meaning in the mundane is a human endeavor – it may very well be what makes us us, and is most certainly the raison d'etre of this blog. We've reached the first week of football where the exclamation points on my sheet are no longer strictly beside winning teams. Which means that we're entering the stretch of the season where the narratives are being written, the subtext is becoming clear, and the ending is shaping itself out to look like what we all kind of expected going in.

Three of the games in my top-5 are between powerhouse teams. The other two are outfits we thought might be playing for the Super Bowl by the end of the year, but are instead playing now for their seasons. And the bottom four I expect to be blowouts. The middle games? Well--

Let's get on with it, then.

Week 7 Game Power Rankings

#13 Detroit Lions (0-5) @ Los Angeles Rams (5-1)

This game is going to be a blowout. I know it's the Matt Stafford/Jared Goff revenge game. I know that I look prescient for coming after Jared Goff the week before he threw it out of bounds on 4^th down. I know the Rams are due for a game where they completely unload on somebody on both sides of the ball – a statement win, as it were, to announce themselves as the truest contenders in the NFC—

But pummeling the fucking Lions is not that game.

The give-up starts early in this contest, and doesn't let up until the end of the season.

Rams by 500 points.

#12 Houston Texans (1-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-0)

Another blowout. I don't think there's anything to be learned by this game. The Cardinals can win without their head coach, and the Texans can't win without Tyrod Taylor – and this isn't the game to bring him back. Not against this pass rush.

Cardinals by all the points.

#11 Chicago Bears (3-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)

I want so badly to be interested in the Bears. But Bill Lazor versus Todd Bowles doesn't feel like a fair fight, and the Chicago defense is overmatched in every conceivable way. Can Justin Fields continue to string together good weeks and stay healthy? That's the only thing worth watching this game to see.

I think the Bears are going to keep this tight, then break under the mountain of points Brady is going to score in the fourth quarter.

Bucs 31 – 17.

#10 Washington Football Team (2-4) @ Green Bay Packers (5-1)

Taylor Heinicke did not give me the boat race I wanted against the Chiefs. That's problematic. Their defense is supposed to be a sieve. The Packers defense is not bad. In fact, the Packers defense is playing pretty well. And they're another week into adding Jaylon Smith at linebacker. Jaire Alexander is about another week from returning from his shoulder. I don't imagine the Pack is going to miss him much this week. This is in Green Bay, and the Football Team are just waiting to fall apart under the strain of their inadequate roster.

Packers win big, but Heinicke continues to look like a starter.

31 – 13.

#9 Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ New York Giants (1-5)

The New York Giants are a shitshow and Matt Rhule fully backs his quarterback going into the weekend. How hot is Joe Brady's seat, actually?

Speaking of the Panthers offense, I wrote through the first few weeks that the offense looked good, but their only real success was found throwing everything to DJ Moore. Well, if I noticed it, you better believe every professional defensive coordinator in the world noticed it. And since that has dried up, so too has the offense. I know they aren't running Chuba Hubbard enough, and I don't understand, because he's plenty adequate to carry the load of an offense; and the Robbie Anderson/Sam Darnold chemistry hasn't seemed to materialize in this scheme, but this feels like a team just waiting to break through the paper homecoming banner they've draped across the entrance to the tunnel.

Does anyone else remember that movie? Was it Little Giants? The Replacements? I guess I don't remember that movie.

What am I talking about?

Oh, right. I'm supposed to be talking about the New York Football Giants, here.

Do I have to? Is anyone on this team healthy?

So Daniel Jones is apparently healthy, but Barkley, Golladay, Ross, and Toney are all listed as Did Not Participate on the Injury Report. No wide receivers is not how DJ bounces back. Is Saquon a difference-maker at this point in his career? Has he played a full game this season? I don't know, I'm genuinely asking. Because the Giants stink, and his lack of availability is starting to be a problem.

The Panthers need to run away with this game. They're the better team with the better coaches. I don't know if Joe Brady is a bad coordinator, but I do know that Jason Garrett is. And I don't know that Joe Judge could do much worse with this squad than he has. I guess he could have lost the one game he won. So, yes, he could have done worse. Expressions, man....

Panthers win big, 31 – 13.

#8 New Orleans Saints (3-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-4)

What a great time to play in Seattle – for the opponent. We get another look at Geno, I haven't gotten to watch a minute of their football live, and it looks like that's going to change on Monday night. Because apparently nobody at ESPN realizes that Geno Smith is not Primetime football material, and I guess I don't understand how the Flex rules work.

Are the Seahawks a bad team? In my Totally Subjective Weighted PowerRankings Through Week 5  I have them ranked 22. Up from 26 in my Subjective Personal rankings. And they didn't move much if at all in either. Is Pete Carroll the only thing about this team I like? (I was wrong, by the way: I haven't heard anyone calling for PC's head yet. Geno buys you a lot of rope, even when your defense isn't winning you games like it should be.)

What else is there to enjoy watching? DK Metcalf making silly choices with the ball at the end of the game, then getting in a dick-measuring contest with one of the Sharpes on Twitter? Like... that's a problem, for me. Gotta keep wide receivers and corners off their damn phones, man.

And is Tyler Lockett a good receiver, or is he a freak athlete who makes incredible catches during the scramble drill? The more of their games I watch, the more I wonder.

Am I seriously avoiding trying to talk about the Saints?

Yes. Yes, I am. What do they have besides a damn good running back and defensive coordinator? And yes, I like him almost exclusively because his name is Dennis, so whatever. His scheme is a menace for opposing offenses, and Cameron Jordan – or is it Jordan Cameron? Dave Dameshek got me all confused about them back in the day and now— Cameron Jordan. See, sometimes I know what I'm talking about.

I bet he feasts on Geno. Geno throws up some picks. Has some fumbles. The Seahawks forget to run the ball and try to air it out. You know, Seattle shit ever since Marshawn stopped wanting to talk to the media.

Saints win in the wonkiest way, 27 – 24.

#7 New York Jets (1-4) @ New England Patriots (2-4)

Didn't we already get this game, Week 2? Wow, the schedule makers really wanted to bury these two trash teams, didn't they?

That's not fair. I don't think either of these teams is as bad as their record. But that's what happens when you go young, isn't it Chris Grier – I mean Bill Belichick?

If they hadn't already played, I would say that this is not the defense that Zach Wilson wants to try to get-right against. But he's already had a 25-interception meltdown against the Patriots. Aw, shit, this is one's in New England. Maybe he does meltdown again. I was going to say that you don't usually see a quarterback totally shit his pants in both contests against a divisional opponent. But you don't usually see them play each other twice inside eight weeks, either.

Mac Jones look like a three-year starter. That's all on him. I've spent a lot of time talking about greatness lately, trying to understand what it means to be among the all-time greats practically – because, you know, as much as I'm doing this for fun and laughs and I hope you're enjoying it, I do plan to be among the greats at observing the game. Mac Jones has done what Mac Jones has done. Just as Brady did before him, he has stepped up to the massive plate set before him. And I know that's a baseball idiom, but I'm imagining his situation more like sitting down to an eating contest against Jack's Beanstalk-sized giants. And so far, he doesn't seem inadequate to the job. 

(I wish I could say the same for all the AFC East quarterbacks. Cus I get the same feeling from Wilson I get from Mac.)

Let's be real, though: Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are two of the best to ever do it at this point. I don't think we can take that from ol' Josh, no matter how ugly the Colts renege was.

The Patriots defense is so up and down this season, though. Every time I think they're going to string together a few great performances, they've fallen on their faces. I'd like for this to be the game they do it again, if only so the Jets suffer in draft positioning.

For one week, let's J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.

(Ugh. What a terrible chant.)

#6 Atlanta Falcons (2-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-4)

I am very likely not going to listen to this game on the radio. More on that in the #1 spot.

I deliberately put this game in the midway point for a reason. If you came here to look for where I put Miami, then I'm writing this just for you: I would be lying if I didn't say I was disproportionately interested in this game when looking at the records. The games before this are all either going to be blowouts or should be blowouts but the better team isn't good enough on offense. This game is not altogether different from that.

The Falcons should be able to eliminate the Dolphins. They have the better quarterback, and their defense is good enough to stymie what has been through three years a woefully bad Dolphins offense. The only thing is, the defense is going to be playing for their coach's job. I don't think the players in Miami want Flores gone. He got rid of all the guys who didn't vibe with him.

The Dolphins roster is a bunch of dudes who either don't know any better or who other teams didn't want. That means something to these guys. And I think the defense shows up.

The question, and the reason this game is so high, is twofold: Can Tua show me anything; and would I rather have Matt Ryan, even at this stage of his career? Because he might be available this offseason, and how perfectly Dolphins would it be for them to target him 13 years too late. Questions that don't so much buoy this game as they do define it would be something like, can Miami's defense keep Kyle Pitts from going off? Who does Miami put on Kyle Pitts? Can Miami generate any pass rush against this statue of a quarterback?

I don't seem to have questions for the Falcons. They're in the first year of a new head coach and in unquestioned roster trouble. The only answers they need to address this season are whether the offensive scheme and the players in it are improving throughout the year. If yes, then this season is a success no matter the record. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are nothing but questions for me. But... that seems to be the source of my fascination with them.

I do think the Dolphins can win this game. I don't think the Falcons actually have enough firepower to score more than four times against Flores and his defense. And I do think Miami can find a way to score four or more times against Atlanta at home. I know Waddle got two scores in London, but he has to be the Dolphins' big play. That why he was drafted. They have to force a big score in this game. Tua has to murder the Falcons' dreams of getting back to .500.

The Dolphins look like they're going to turn the season around with a 30 – 16 victory, running away with a close contest after the half.

#5 Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-2)

This is a Crossroads game. These teams will be headed very different directions after, regardless of the outcome.

Philly can't suffer another loss, I don't think, before they go into fire sale mode. Their owner is too impatient, and they might end up with three top-10 picks next year. Devonta Smith is already being treated by opponents like a Number One receiver. That's great news for his development as a player, terrible news for his Fantasy owners.

The Raiders won last weekend. That means they've punched their One Free Game off their Interim Head Coach card. I wish I knew enough about Bingo to have made that a Bingo joke, instead of an inverted cafe joke. Ahem.

The evaluation of Bisaccia begins this weekend. The emotions have settled down. It's week 7, just another week on the schedule. Do they have a win against a bad team in them? Is, in other words, Derek Carr a murderer of men's dreams?

Not against Philly's pass rush, he's not. I haven't discussed the Eagles defense. They're quietly one of the best in the League. We're left with the taste Tom Brady left in our mouths last Thursday. It was a long time ago that he ruined that defense; but if you look at the scheme Philly was running, they were acknowledging that Tom was going to carve them to pieces. They kept saying it during the broadcast, but Philly were giving the Bucs all the ground they could take, content to get stops in the redzone or to create turnovers. That isn't the way they played the rest of their opponents, and I don't expect them to play Derek Carr that way.

Carr is just not Brady. I'm not going to get any pushback on that, I don't figure. Nor is Josh Jacobs Leonard Fournette.

The more I think about and write about this game, the more I think the Raiders are in a tough spot. Their defense is going to have to keep performing at a high level, because I think the Eagles are going to be mad about the gameplan they cooked up, and I think Jalen Hurts is going to hand it off 50 times. If only so they can really showcase Miles Sanders for the trade market after a loss.

Philly wins this one, 24 – 10.

#4 Indianapolis Colts (2-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-3)

This game climbed all the way up here because whoever loses is done for the season. That's how it feels. The Colts are digging themselves out of an early hole with surprisingly good defense and adequate quarterback play. The 49ers are coming off a bye week that feels way too early.

Is Garoppolo the answer? I know that going back to him is the right choice. Lance wasn't enough, and if Shanahan is going to keep his butt from getting hot in that seat, he has to start winning games. He doesn't have the leash, or the cache with the fans to develop yet another quarterback. Can Jimmy G beat a good Colts pass rush and improving secondary? The Colts made Jacoby Brissett look like a silly person. Can Jimmy be better?

The Colts have to run the ball. I don't care what the matchup is, I don't care what the 49ers defense is doing, they have got to run-run-pass on at least 1/3 of their drives. The strength of their team is their backs. If they're going to go pass-heavy, Hines and Thomas can't leave the field. They aren't Derrick Henry, but this team only looks like they can beat anyone when they're handing it off 30 times and getting their backs another 10-15 touches through the air.

Hilton is back and Pittman, Campbell, and Pascal have made plays. This team is good enough to beat a struggling 49ers team. Can they is the question.

The scale tips toward the Colts because I think the strength of their defense matches up nicely against the strength of the Shanahan Scheme: the running game. I don't know that Juszczyk is enough to upset that balance, this week.

49ers fall, Colts creep back to .500. 20 – 17.

#3 Denver Broncos (3-3) @ Cleveland Browns (3-3)

Jarvis Landry being activated for the Browns changes everything. I don't think the Browns are taking much of a step down from Baker Mayfield to Case Keenum. Indeed, I think they're taking a step up from the way Baker has played the last two weeks. I don't know whether Keenum is going to be the same guy that Stefanski used to take the Vikings to the Playoffs a few seasons ago. A few seasons is a long time. And he proved he couldn't do it twice in a row. But regardless of how healthy he actually is, Jarvis Landry presents a pair of hands on third down that will catch the ball and try to make something happen with it.

And every backup quarterback needs that.

The Broncos feel like they're starting their backup quarterback this week. I can't speak to whether it's the concussion, or whether Teddy B has always been a limited quarterback and he surprised three teams before the Ravens injured his brain. Regardless, the Broncos receivers don't look any good. How is it that individually they can have moments where you're like, that dude's a dude in this League – all he needs is one of the other dudes to come of the Injury Report— And then they come off the injury report and play like shit together until one of them gets hurt?

What is that?

I have ideas, but this isn't the place to explore them. The Broncos stink as a team, but the Browns are hurt and trying to figure out their secondary. I would say that's the perfect matchup for Teddy to get right against, for his receivers to get some experience and some confidence against – but that's pretending like Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett aren't going to ruin Teddy all day.

Is this the game the Broncos defense comes alive? I feel like it should be, but I also feel like Keenum is good enough under pressure to negate it.

Cleveland has to win this game. They do so, but only barely, leaving their fans with more questions than answers. 24 - 23.

#2 Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) @ Tennessee Titans (4-2)

This game lands at number two almost because it has to.

Ryan Tannehill versus Patrick Mahomes – what more could I want from a game? Two of my favorite quarterbacks, my two favorite styles of football – Andy Reid's offense and defense in general; but the Titans ground and pound better than anyone. This game feels like it's going to be a slobber-knocker. Except the only team I think that's getting slobber-knocked around is the Chiefs.

Kansas City is in trouble. In years past, the whole world has known that you can run on them – indeed, that they're inviting it with the play of their quarterback. Well, this year you can pass on them, too. But is that an artifact of the team, the scheme, the players being poor, or is it the result of every team they play, regardless of whether they're the lowly Football Team or the Buffalo Bills, playing them like it's their Super Bowl? I think it's the latter. I also think it's an artifact of Kansas City being a team that has routinely taken time to get things right in the first half of the season with Mahomes. They practically sleep-walked through the last two regular seasons on their way to Super Bowls.

The Titans, on the other hand, are coming off a huge, emotional win against the Buffalo Bills. If they were the Dolphins, I would guarantee a defeat here. But the Dolphins don't have Derrick Henry. And huge, emotional wins tend to get defenses going, so I look for the Titans to repeat, doing everything they did well against the Bills and then some. Because at 4-2, they aren't anywhere near the lead of this AFC race. If they want a shot at the top, they have to beat the reigning champ resoundingly.

So it looks like I'm going with the underdog this weekend? Titans win, 31 – 30.

Not exactly resounding. But what needs to happen and what actually does are often very different things – and that conflict makes up the backbone of modern storytelling.

#1 Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-1)

Hm! I just learned that I won't be getting a 1:00 game on Sunday. Guess there isn't one in my broadcast area? That's a bummer. Guess I'll be guaranteeing I catch my #1 game this week – either by finding a bar (unlikely) or finding it on the radio. Maybe I go with Baltimore this weekend – I don't know that I've ever tuned in to their radio show.

I don't know that this game showing up in the #1 spot should surprise anyone. This is the only matchup on the slate between teams with winning records. That made it pretty easy and obvious for me – going with the easy and obvious thing is a lesson I am learning from this whole process, if yesterday's wanderer didn't clue you in to that.

We knew going into last week that Baltimore was going to be able to run the ball. What we didn't know is that the LA offense was going to get lost up its own ass. I am confident the Bengals defense is going to have a good showing because they've already had six of them – no reason to stop now. And, while their offense does have a lot to work out, what with struggling to score against Jacksonville and losing to Green Bay at home, I trust Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase to connect when it matters late in the game. If nothing else, this Bengals team has been consistent.

The Ravens, on the other hand, have only been consistent at one thing: playing Ravens football – whatever the hell I mean by that. (I mean ugly wins with questionably legal defense and wow plays from the quarterback, that's what I mean by that.)

It's hard to hate this Ravens team, though. It's hard not to be awed by Lamar Jackson – to liken him, as Colin Cowherd has impressed upon me, to a lightning storm. I don't know that they're going to find the kind of success on the ground they did last week, though. And if Lamar is scattershot or uncomfortable in the pocket in the first half, this is another contest that could get out of hand on them early. The question becomes how disciplined the Cinci defense can be in their pursuit of Jackson when he goes into Hero Mode, and whether the Cinci offense can keep scoring points late in the game.

I want to say this one comes down to coaching, because this is a Divisional contest and you can usually throw out the rosters in these games. But I don't believe that. John Harbaugh is the better coach, but I think that Zac Taylor is gonna kick him in his shins this weekend.

Bengals win 32 – 27.

If I had to give a theme for this week's games, it would be something like If you're going to play meaningful games by Halloween, you have to steal more than three before October. Cincinnati, Las Vegas, and Tennessee feel like completely different clubs to me at 4-2 than Chicago, New Orleans, Kansas city, Denver, Cleveland, and New Orleans do at 3-3 – and far-and-away better than Indy, San Francisco, Philly, Washington, and New England with only two wins.

Even if the 4-2 teams all fall this weekend and all the 3-3 and 2-win teams win (an impossibility), I'll be counting on the 4-win teams to bounce back. I can't say the same for the rest of the League – regardless of the statistical certainty that someone is going to come from a losing record at the one-third mark to a Wild Card spot.

The teams with one win or fewer are in desperation mode. Which teams start to fire sale? Miami only has one position of need/with question marks: the quarterback. Is Deshaun Watson a reality on Monday morning after another Dolphins loss and another poor showing from their rookie second-year quarterback?

I guess we'll find out. It's only Thursday, after all.

Thanks for making it this far. It's been fun talking at you. You'll see from me tomorrow about tonight's game and whatever else gets stuck in my teeth between then and now. Until then!